tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2489715514239379132024-03-05T02:10:09.408-08:00Kingsley外汇部落格kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.comBlogger105125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-36238211184506846412014-12-17T23:49:00.000-08:002014-12-17T23:49:20.935-08:00如何从趋势中寻找对冲?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
早前若上过高级课的学员们,大家不难了解到如何去推测一波趋势,但像近期的澳币一直狂跌的时候,您或许很难在单一货币对中寻找到较美的趋势来进场。难道就这样守株待兔什么都不做就等待趋势形成吗?<br /><br /> 在这里,我和大家分享如何透过对冲的方法来寻找趋势!简单来说,我们透过寻找到关联性较高的货币对来找出另一组可交易的货币对;再透过了解两组的货币对的趋势以及隔夜利息等来寻找进场点!不再傻傻地等待了。。<br /><br /><b>入场思维:</b></div>
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<b>1)透过GME Correlation 寻找关联性较高的对冲组<br />-->图(1)中可以看到AUD/USD & USD/CAD 和 AUD/USD & AUD/CAD<br /><br />2)寻找到合适的对冲组后,再透过天图来确认是否有合适的趋势?<br /><br />3)需要考虑到对冲组的“空间”和“隔夜利息” 。</b></div>
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<u>如何从趋势中寻找对冲?</u></div>
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<b>-->透过GME Correlation 寻找关联性较高的对冲组</b></div>
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【图1】</div>
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我们透过GME correlation 寻找出一组关联性较高的货币对:AUD/USD & USD/CAD (-0.96)<br /><br /> 从这个答案中,我们知道两者有负96%的关联性;意思代表若USD/CAD一天的均量是600点的话,当AUD/USD一天的量满足后,理论上USD/CAD应该会波动576点(一天均量的96%)。</div>
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<b>-->“反比”的关联性该如何做对冲?</b><br /> 两者的关系是反势(-0.96)的话,代表AUD/USD 走升的时候,USD/CAD应该走跌。若我们想要透过这两组货币对对冲的话,我们应该两者都做买、或是卖;这样才能用一组的走势来抵消另一组货币对的风险。<br /></div>
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<b>-->我该做两者买?还是做买?</b></div>
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在使用对冲的时候,除了关联性是非常重要的一点之外,买入的方向更为重要,否则将会遭受较大的亏损!</div>
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若要考虑到是“买”还是“卖”?有以下几点你必须搞清楚:<br />(1)您的策略是短线还是长线持有?<br />(2)若您的策略是短线的话,你就跟着目前的趋势来做交易就好了(如上升通道,下跌通道,头肩底,双顶等),但关键在于潜在的空间哪一个比较大。<br />(3)若您的策略是长线的话,你就必须考虑那一组的潜在空间较大的同时,也考虑到库存费(隔夜利息)。若A&B的对冲组都持有一年,但是A的组合每一天都在支付1美金的利息;而B的组合则是每一天持有还净赚4.5的利息的话,这会比A组来得更好!<br /><br />**EUR/USD & USD/CHF ,也是-0.99的关联性。若目前为止两组做买的话,每一天你将支付(0.48 -1.6)的利息。<br />**AUD/USD & USD/CAD & AUD/CAD 每天则可以净赚4.51美金的利息。(请往下看便能知道原因)<br /><br /><u><br /></u></div>
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<u>寻找到合适的对冲组后,再透过天图来确认是否有合适的趋势?</u></div>
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<b>-->从天图中寻找趋势:</b></div>
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刚刚我们透过Correlation知道AUD/USD & USD/CAD 有较密切的反向趋势,所以我们可以根据此线索去寻找答案。接下来我们要做的便是去观察这两组货币对的趋势:<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmvDB9SGWJEx1QnSoGcrGOFEOdcg23XMkGxxXGboJs0QjjJjRcxOPMylTVPWsDJAQbXzMrvWmoFMdBRpNdJLBbS_DpQlc55VXkJhge6MrUz-Q2Cvqv_ERNVAa43HRChN82bDVAlKJfSDo/s1600/AUDUSD.1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmvDB9SGWJEx1QnSoGcrGOFEOdcg23XMkGxxXGboJs0QjjJjRcxOPMylTVPWsDJAQbXzMrvWmoFMdBRpNdJLBbS_DpQlc55VXkJhge6MrUz-Q2Cvqv_ERNVAa43HRChN82bDVAlKJfSDo/s1600/AUDUSD.1.jpg" height="390" width="640" /></a></div>
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【AUD/USD,图2】</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK0hq_csA47PHzmcYJpbfoG-OXN_K5dBkARQSvjz4bIMeqPNNQGjDOMuKvPBNuLUOrJsj26C0YgxKhMEdYpAHcR6Pjy2eR_79nhWgb32XXwx4X3mW_bB3g2iA6SHMjMGWfhqROkxU1krg/s1600/USDCAD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK0hq_csA47PHzmcYJpbfoG-OXN_K5dBkARQSvjz4bIMeqPNNQGjDOMuKvPBNuLUOrJsj26C0YgxKhMEdYpAHcR6Pjy2eR_79nhWgb32XXwx4X3mW_bB3g2iA6SHMjMGWfhqROkxU1krg/s1600/USDCAD.jpg" height="390" width="640" /></a></div>
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【USD/CAD,图3】</div>
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从以上两张图,我们可以发现到AUD/USD 没明显的趋势,但是唯有早前的阻力在0.835 ;而USD/CAD则是靠近上升通道的顶部开始又转跌的现象。</div>
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若从我们刚刚所了解的情况来看,我们可以大胆假设,若USD/CAD无法突破上升通道转跌的话,代表着AUD/USD将反弹。所以未来可以预期AUD/USD会持稳于0.81-0.82直接,并且迈向0.835的阻力。反之,USD/CAD有望撤回至1.15左右。</div>
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<b>-->如何寻第三组货币?</b><br />AUD/USD & USD/CAD<br /><br />若我根据数学的方程式把美金因素拿掉的话,代表另外一组的货币对 AUD/CAD 就会产生了!这货币对有何关系?请往下看!<br /><br />我们看回Correlation时,你会发现AUD/USD & AUD/CAD的关系为正比0.95 !简单来说,当AUD/USD 上升的同时,AUD/CAD也将一样上升,因为两者的关联性是正比95% 。</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZlMZFVgrusjs2F8ji3i9aRuWgNDoS1Vh0EQ2HKhnWm_bRoBWn-XEX8S84SRGExoo-YLCCzJn7VEEkoTqNk4wpw11bX1ljQkMRKSxwNNLa4HbxQfMVH94BWvJzpExvEzVTgn4IRkFosr8/s1600/AUDCAD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZlMZFVgrusjs2F8ji3i9aRuWgNDoS1Vh0EQ2HKhnWm_bRoBWn-XEX8S84SRGExoo-YLCCzJn7VEEkoTqNk4wpw11bX1ljQkMRKSxwNNLa4HbxQfMVH94BWvJzpExvEzVTgn4IRkFosr8/s1600/AUDCAD.jpg" height="386" width="640" /></a></div>
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【AUD/CAD,图4】</div>
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若把三组的关联加在一起的话,那么我们知道AUD/USD & USD/CAD 两者应该一起做买,因为澳币目前较低,而USD/CAD 目前看跌 。而 AUD/CAD则与AUD/USD同个方向,若USD/CAD跌的话,AUD/USD & AUD/CAD将同时上涨!</div>
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<b>-->计算“隔夜利息”</b> 买单利息 卖单利息<br />AUD/USD 4.52usd -7.89usd<br /><br />USD/CAD -3.76usd 0.34usd<br /><br />AUD/CAD 3.75usd -4.9usd<br /><br /> 刚刚我们知道若USD/CAD跌的同时,AUD/USD & AUD/CAD可以做买。那么现在我们来看一看做买比较划算?还是做卖比较划算?<br /><br />若三组一起做买的话可以得到4.51usd ;相对的,若三组一起做卖的话需要支付12.45usd 。</div>
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你明白其中的道理吗?明白的话,那么恭喜你,因为趋势正要来临了!<br /><br /><br />你“汇”了吗?<br /><br /><br /></div>
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<br />kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-38610096968099068902014-12-15T23:46:00.001-08:002014-12-15T23:46:53.737-08:00Steffi 技术分析 #15/12 - 19 /12#<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b><u><span style="font-size: large;">澳币兑美金趋势分析</span></u></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIiMWpqSqfH-OdFZP6LldlVhAA9meb3oS_Y0upNpe84ECuAqYsHphO1ZJzIFmfX0ECGzdD6j7SGN5q3tEMPZnhD-TEhKSjPqCH4Vf0D0ml7TsbytwpXE9PZDgRl3tjsBM8fWmhurORpYk/s1600/AU.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIiMWpqSqfH-OdFZP6LldlVhAA9meb3oS_Y0upNpe84ECuAqYsHphO1ZJzIFmfX0ECGzdD6j7SGN5q3tEMPZnhD-TEhKSjPqCH4Vf0D0ml7TsbytwpXE9PZDgRl3tjsBM8fWmhurORpYk/s1600/AU.png" height="288" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;"> 图表显示</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">AUDUSD</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">上周已跌出该下降趋势通道。本周只</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">要能</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">够再次进入趋势通道内那么有望走一波升势。反之,诺持续跌势,必须留意</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.80</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的支持价位。如果无法留守</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.80</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">该价位,那么此货币将会开启一波跌势。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">预期走势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.84</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.865</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.88 <br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">0.80</span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></u></b></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-size: large;">澳币兑纽币趋势分析</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">图表显示</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">AUDNZD</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">上周</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">已</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">突破该上升趋势线。近期跌势只</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">要能</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">够持稳在</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Auto </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">100%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之上那么极有可能形成双底并且有望走一波升势。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">预期走势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.063</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.075<br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.048</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.028</span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-size: large;">欧元兑加币趋势分析</span></u></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9Ly8d2yijSfgiIffeFpM3-7GWcJUbXgC4FlAAXMn85_yJVzJ0fOPYviPmjIW3so1eiXo3UmtJaUsjGvmGtlchpbbKlIP5enrn8C8OUO_Cm0o8e4L-bjipfYGT6-M-77HbxzutxLnoQFk/s1600/EURCAD.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9Ly8d2yijSfgiIffeFpM3-7GWcJUbXgC4FlAAXMn85_yJVzJ0fOPYviPmjIW3so1eiXo3UmtJaUsjGvmGtlchpbbKlIP5enrn8C8OUO_Cm0o8e4L-bjipfYGT6-M-77HbxzutxLnoQFk/s1600/EURCAD.png" height="288" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">图表显示</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">EURCAD</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">目前已突破三角,以技术角度来看该货币有望完成一比一走势,获利可先追至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">auto </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> 50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之下。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">预期走势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.45</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.473<br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.428</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.40</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.388</span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-size: large;">英镑兑加币趋势分析</span></u></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgexkpUF69iGncpPyrM3tcfAYMjj-4LCpKPY8QUYW8_IcQwxWpjpdccLxuq0vOadq5u1B-4dhRkhKJUG16Jtl78aUWPZ5Bg1KAg7oF0BIen2bNj7VOUAbZgAlT5elMLEHpNV4tAO_29Xg/s1600/GBPCAD.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgexkpUF69iGncpPyrM3tcfAYMjj-4LCpKPY8QUYW8_IcQwxWpjpdccLxuq0vOadq5u1B-4dhRkhKJUG16Jtl78aUWPZ5Bg1KAg7oF0BIen2bNj7VOUAbZgAlT5elMLEHpNV4tAO_29Xg/s1600/GBPCAD.png" height="288" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">技术面趋势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">GBPCAD</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">早前形成双底目前已走涨至下跌趋势线的阻力价位。以技术角度观察整体趋势偏向跌势的机率依然强劲,本周开市只要能持稳在阻力以及</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">MA200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之下那么可以考虑持续做空,。</span></div>
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预期走势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.825</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.838</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.855</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.81</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.796</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.78</span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">**</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">以上的分析截止今天以前的数据和报告进行分析,并提供免费的个人观点进行参考。参考后请自身进行分析和判断,本人将不会附上任何投资上的亏损。</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-77994296099490442762014-12-04T20:12:00.001-08:002014-12-04T20:12:37.384-08:00瑞士黄金公投的后市分析<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">早在</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号,瑞士选民以压倒性优势否决了增加黄金储备以及严格限制移民的提案。据瑞士</span><span lang="EN-US">SRF</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">电视台报道,这场名为“挽救瑞士黄金”的倡议遭到</span><span lang="EN-US">77%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">投票者反对。公投活动由右翼瑞士人民党发起,原因是相关人士担心</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">瑞士央行</span></span>(SNB)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以往出售的黄金过多。而瑞士央行称对公投结果表示欢迎,并重申将继续保卫</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/news/currency/EUR.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">欧元</span></a></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">兑</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/news/currency/CHF.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">瑞郎</span></span></a>1.20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">汇率</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">下限,如有必要将不限量买入外币,并及时采取进一步行动。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">瑞士黄金公投的动议原本希望迫使瑞士央行将资产中的黄金储备比重从目前大约</span><span lang="EN-US">8%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">提高至</span><span lang="EN-US">20%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,并禁止央行出售黄金。若此项倡议获得通过,将威胁到央行保卫瑞郎汇率上限的能力。因为瑞士央行需要在未来</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年内购买</span><span lang="EN-US">1500</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">吨的黄金,或市值高达</span><span lang="EN-US">700</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿瑞郎(约合</span><span lang="EN-US">725</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿美元)的黄金才能满足最低的储备额度要求,而这相当于全球黄金年产量的近三分之二。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在黄金公投落幕后,市场的焦点自然拉回到美联储何时升息的问题上!若美联储最终再次令市场失望的话,黄金依然有反弹的空间。而且实体需求或有望增加。但笔者认为,美联储升息只是时间上的问题,再加上日本和欧洲不断的加大宽松的力度,这更加能凸显美联储升息的可能性。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我相信在公投之后,市场的投资人对于黄金的关心必然是下一步将如何走?在这就让我为大家做一些分析吧!笔者认为未来黄金兑美金将可能在</span><span lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年上半年维持在</span><span lang="EN-US">1120 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">至</span><span lang="EN-US"> 1300</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">之间的价位,直到美联储公布明确的升息信号为止。主要原因在于:</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第一点:黄金支撑于</span><span lang="EN-US">1120</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">黄金自</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月以来便持续往下跌,近期更是因为美联储升息的呼声越来越高而打压了黄金。但是美联储升息的话题已经不是第一次传出了,早在伯南克任职期间早就传闻美联储“即将”升息!可总是“雷声大,雨点小”,一次次地令投资人丧失了信心。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">从黄金周线图来看,金价已呈现整体上升的趋势。而自进入</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份以来,黄金走势大多盘整介于</span><span lang="EN-US">1220-1180 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">之间等待明确的指引。若美国经济数据(特别是</span><span lang="EN-US">CPI & </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">就业报告)并无改善令美联储对未来的升息无足够的信心的话,我相信黄金短暂还有一些反弹空间,但是整体来看,可以逢高做空!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)</span><span lang="EN-US">:1330 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">1000<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)</span><span lang="EN-US">:1275 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">1180<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)</span><span lang="EN-US">:1230 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">1210<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第二点:</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体;">资金看好美元?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">在美联储宣布结束实施多年的</span><span lang="EN-US">QE</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">以及欧日</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">央行逐渐加大货币政策刺激力度的影响之下,美元货币更加受到市场资金青睐,</span><span lang="EN-US">2014</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年美元指数从自</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">月自来便从</span><span lang="EN-US">78.90</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">上涨至</span><span lang="EN-US">89</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。从技术上来看,美元指数若能持稳在</span><span lang="EN-US">88</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">附近,等待美联储加息之时将有可能可以突破</span><span lang="EN-US">08</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年的高点</span><span lang="EN-US">91.4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNQ-_LvtT5k-MsxLchiiWX-hrEwFMhEKfGFQSBTQQUCCo4cuwmtffrGWyZY7p-Toj2H_IGUq7EQ3DthVuI1-dBZ-6PVIeDyVYePGqjvrLtyzDSZlezLAOt-iHWnGGwsLvsLDEREWjnYCc/s1600/usdindex.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNQ-_LvtT5k-MsxLchiiWX-hrEwFMhEKfGFQSBTQQUCCo4cuwmtffrGWyZY7p-Toj2H_IGUq7EQ3DthVuI1-dBZ-6PVIeDyVYePGqjvrLtyzDSZlezLAOt-iHWnGGwsLvsLDEREWjnYCc/s1600/usdindex.jpg" height="384" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第三点:美国就业前景</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">美国就业在今年的下半年持续改善,美国非农数据平均都在</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">万以上,这是比较健康的数据,而且最新的报告已经显示,就业率、劳动参与率也有所提升。这无疑对外界看待美联储对于升息的动作更具信心。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">但是近期暴风雪来袭,导致美国的零售,消费和就业都有所放缓。这或许是短暂的影响,我们需等待明年第一季度的报告出来后才能做完整的解答。可是,长期来看美联储的经济前景将是乐观而且持续性地。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">在过去的半年中,美国非农数据平均都在</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">万以上,这是个持续性利好的数据。未来</span><span lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年,大家需要密切留意美国非农就业报告,参与率和</span><span lang="EN-US">LMCI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的就业市场前景。若前景乐观,美联储有望达到升息的目标,对金价有所打压!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体;">第四点:恶性通胀难再现!</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">总所周知,黄金除了避险等功能外,还有一个重要功能就是对抗通胀风险。市场一旦出现恶性通胀,很多东西价格都会上涨,那么黄金价格就自然会有支持,这是资金就会寻求进入黄金市场保值。但是由于当前各国央行都重点关注对抗通缩(例如:欧元区,日本),所以恶性通胀也难以到来,这也是看淡黄金的重要原因。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">在您看了以上的文章后,您或许会想我是否应该马上做空黄金?当然,世事无绝对!黄金也有反弹的机会,但前提需符合以下几个可能性:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体;">第一点:美国政治格局的不确定性。</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">在美国中期选举后,共和党取得国会参众两院的控制权,这使得在未来</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年任期内,</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">奥巴马执政将面临更多困难。如果奥马巴要继续推行其改革措施,比如医疗改革、移民等,则议案可能遭到共和党的反对,共和、民主两党可能继续爆发论战。并且如果共和党启动议案弹劾奥巴马,则美国政治环境风险就会加大,对金价自然有利,所以在</span><span lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年我们会密切关注有关于奥巴马和共和党的博弈。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8pt;">**</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 8pt;">资料源自:和讯黄金</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体;">第二点:实金需求。</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">全球最大的两个黄金进口和消费国(中国与印度)将成为市场的焦点。虽然中国大妈们早前黄金抄底不果,需求有望减少,但是华人农历新年即将到来,有望推升实体需求。此外,</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">印度方面,早前因国家赤字攀升而实行进口管制和课重税的印度已在近期废黄金进口除管制。若印度的实体需求复苏,则有望支撑金价。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">另一方面,虽然瑞士央行黄金公投否决,瑞士央行无需买入黄金。可是俄罗斯与中国央行早在金价介于</span><span lang="EN-US">1200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">时就不断悄悄的买入了很多黄金作为储备。基于以上两点,所以笔者个人认为黄金有望得到支撑。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体;">第三点:欧洲经济前景</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> 10</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">号,日本加大宽松规模为了刺激出口,而韩国则是减息抵挡日元贬值导致的出口下滑。另一边,由于整体欧元区经济下滑,德拉吉也不排除会增加资产购买和增持主权债券来协助欧元经济复苏;瑞士央行则是准备捍卫欧元兑法郎</span><span lang="EN-US">1.2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的下限而等待减息来阻止经济放缓。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">央行为了刺激经济和防止通缩而不断的释放钞票的动作或可能令投资者转投黄金或是高息货币来抵消风险。但前提是美联储的加息时间被模糊和不明确!倘若美联储能开出明确的升息时间点,我相信黄金的买盘将不强劲,因为外界将买入美元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">整体而言,黄金的未来趋势主要以美国的就业前景和升息的时间点为大前提。而目前美国正遭受暴风雪来袭,所以个人觉得黄金短暂有反弹的趋势,介于</span><span lang="EN-US">1180 – 1230</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">;但是明年第一季后将可能逢高做空黄金!若黄金跌破</span><span lang="EN-US">1120</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">则下探</span><span lang="EN-US">1000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的整数价位!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: orange; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">**</span></b><b><span style="color: orange; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Helvetica;">以上的分析截止今天以前的数据和报告进行分析,并提供免费的个人观点进行参考。参考后请自身进行分析和判断,本人将不会附上任何投资上的亏损。</span></b><b><span style="color: orange; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"></span><span data-offset-key="1v0m1-0-2" data-reactid=".sm.1:2.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.1.0.$1v0m1.0:$1v0m1-0-2" style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span data-reactid=".sm.1:2.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.1.0.$1v0m1.0:$1v0m1-0-2.0">
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-34053793786218200922014-12-03T11:27:00.002-08:002014-12-03T11:27:56.458-08:00澳币持稳,美金利空,将创造什么趋势? 美国近期由于暴风雪的问题或可能成为美国升息的绊脚石!<br />
近期美国的零售报告预测将可能下修;此外,众人瞩目的美国就业报告也将可能传出利空的消息!最新发布的小非农(ADP-Non Farm Payroll)不及预期和前期,为208千人。而上周初请/续请就业人数也连续三周不及预期,上周更突破300千人。<br />
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由于美国经济可能因暴风雪的影响而放缓,所以我个人预计本次的非农和上周初请/续请就业人数将同样利空美金,利好非美货币。<br />
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此外,澳洲方面,在前天的澳洲联储议会上,澳洲央行并无对澳洲经济前景放缓有更大的动作。但是,近期有关中国的经济放缓的问题和澳洲本身的矿业更是拖累了GDP的下滑,令外界抛售澳币。<br />
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今早澳洲将发布零售业和贸易帐。若两个数据能给力的话,我相信澳币将可能持稳并迎来短暂一波上升趋势!<br />
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<b><u>技术面分析:</u></b><br />
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<b><u>澳币兑美金-</u></b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIndwMYV_riUvhjyu1xLGMTdbpL_DmGXhG4UBi9i7nrG4WAMbFCIgt1IOcywCs-YGCjsWStQQo9MVjdwiK53plPDWkDXlW0dtaJa3yedPJMLc-1pT-sJzrJ82KsWSi3I5f0AlQfrk50NQ/s1600/AUDUSD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIndwMYV_riUvhjyu1xLGMTdbpL_DmGXhG4UBi9i7nrG4WAMbFCIgt1IOcywCs-YGCjsWStQQo9MVjdwiK53plPDWkDXlW0dtaJa3yedPJMLc-1pT-sJzrJ82KsWSi3I5f0AlQfrk50NQ/s1600/AUDUSD.jpg" height="390" width="640" /></a></div>
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澳币兑美金虽已跌破下跌趋势通道,但是持稳在0.84 。<br />
若今早数据能对澳币加持的话,我相信短暂有望反弹至0.87 。<br />
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<b>建议:短期看涨 (1星期)</b><br />
支持(1):0.84 阻力(1):0.865<br />
支持(2):0.80 阻力(2):0.88<br />
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<b><u>欧元兑澳币:</u></b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGWZLGAkzNHvhDbkMt0GNKwjPQykd_YfrlN-yX4Fmdh07UNwS7opKoMQSDu5ZlXB2W9Cc5kWOHv2KPXJfNltp629cKnBROG2cRY-rwFLhJMwJlj4P-bmTDPkzbt7IPCkLhySGYhejclNk/s1600/EURAUD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGWZLGAkzNHvhDbkMt0GNKwjPQykd_YfrlN-yX4Fmdh07UNwS7opKoMQSDu5ZlXB2W9Cc5kWOHv2KPXJfNltp629cKnBROG2cRY-rwFLhJMwJlj4P-bmTDPkzbt7IPCkLhySGYhejclNk/s1600/EURAUD.jpg" height="390" width="640" /></a></div>
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欧元兑澳币虽已经反弹至200天的均线上(以3MA的方式来看,应该看涨),但是欧元兑澳币已形成“三黑乌鸦”以及澳币兑美金持稳于0.84,而且欧元印钞在即,所以我个人看好欧元兑澳币将有望走跌。<br />
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<b>建议:中期看跌(1个月-3个月)</b><br />
<b>有望完成8千点的跌幅!</b><br />
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支持(1):1.435 阻力(1):1.46<br />
支持(2):1.42 阻力(2):1.475<br />
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潜在反势关键:<br />
(A):明早澳洲数据依然差劲!<br />
(B):欧洲央行明天不印钞!<br />
(C):美国就业数据利好!<br />
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<b><u>英镑兑澳币-</u></b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxTCPppfd9wMTaHL3Yr7Iqf7Mj72AJYcLx2y0RQRnVWQ5kAJ4-Px3AGYsfPL7sxFoTPKKvzVsxF3dSwuDFK12Q_SpADuY5gBBNkeGB-0xETh_AYQ8js94uyUtopzTJpBEYqx_4HDz9PlY/s1600/GBPAUD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxTCPppfd9wMTaHL3Yr7Iqf7Mj72AJYcLx2y0RQRnVWQ5kAJ4-Px3AGYsfPL7sxFoTPKKvzVsxF3dSwuDFK12Q_SpADuY5gBBNkeGB-0xETh_AYQ8js94uyUtopzTJpBEYqx_4HDz9PlY/s1600/GBPAUD.jpg" height="390" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxTCPppfd9wMTaHL3Yr7Iqf7Mj72AJYcLx2y0RQRnVWQ5kAJ4-Px3AGYsfPL7sxFoTPKKvzVsxF3dSwuDFK12Q_SpADuY5gBBNkeGB-0xETh_AYQ8js94uyUtopzTJpBEYqx_4HDz9PlY/s1600/GBPAUD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a> 虽然英镑兑澳币有上涨的倾向,但是由于美国就业数据不佳,以及澳币兑美金将持稳于0.84的关系,所以个人觉得英镑兑澳币有望看跌!此外,英镑兑澳币已来到了自10月初开始的第三个阻力!若今早无法突破将有机会转跌!<br />
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<b>建议:短期看跌</b><b>(1星期)</b><br />
支持(1):1.835 阻力(1):1.87<br />
支持(2):1.82 阻力(2):1.885<br />
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潜在反势关键:<br />
(A):明早澳洲数据依然差劲!<br />
(B):英国央行释放升息的时间点!<br />
(C):美国就业数据利好!<br />
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<b><span style="color: orange;"><span data-offset-key="1v0m1-0-0" data-reactid=".sm.1:2.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.1.0.$1v0m1.0:$1v0m1-0-0" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'helvetica neue', helvetica, arial, 'lucida grande', sans-serif; line-height: 16px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span data-reactid=".sm.1:2.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.1.0.$1v0m1.0:$1v0m1-0-0.0"> </span></span><span class="" data-offset-key="1v0m1-0-1" data-reactid=".sm.1:2.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.1.0.$1v0m1.0:$1v0m1-0-1" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'helvetica neue', helvetica, arial, 'lucida grande', sans-serif; line-height: 16px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span data-reactid=".sm.1:2.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.1.0.$1v0m1.0:$1v0m1-0-1.0">**以上的分析截止今天以前的数据和报告进行分析,并提供免费的个人观点进行参考。参考后请自身进行分析和判断,本人将不会附上任何投资上的亏损。</span></span></span></b><span data-offset-key="1v0m1-0-2" data-reactid=".sm.1:2.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.1.0.$1v0m1.0:$1v0m1-0-2" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'helvetica neue', helvetica, arial, 'lucida grande', sans-serif; line-height: 16px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span data-reactid=".sm.1:2.0.$right.0.0.0.0.1.0.0.1.0.$1v0m1.0:$1v0m1-0-2.0"><b><span style="color: orange;"> <span style="font-size: 12px;">
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<b><u><span style="font-size: large;">欧元兑纽币趋势分析</span></u></b><br />
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早前欧元兑纽币从底部反弹后突破上升趋势通道,但是却在1.615附近遇到强劲的阻力无法突破。<br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">技术面趋势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">早</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">前我有提到若价格从新进入下降趋势通道内会有一波跌势的到来。如今可以看到价格已经如预期般跌破而且现已站上趋势通道底部。若这几天价格能够站上</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">auto </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> 76.4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">以及</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">MA100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之上话,</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">那</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">么它将会顺势在趋势通道内走升,获利空间可看至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">auto </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> 50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之下,必须先观察它是否能突破</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">auto </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> 61.8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。但如果跌势依然强劲那么获利可追至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">auto </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。</span></div>
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预期走势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.60</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.619<br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.576</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.553</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.540</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">**需密切留意本周的欧洲央行的货币政策最终有何决定。欧洲央行的一举一动将改变趋势。</span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-size: large;">欧元兑日元趋势分析</span></u></b></div>
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早2个星期前,我已和大家分享到欧元兑日元形成了升三角的形态,若能突破三角区的话,有望上升9500点的空间。</div>
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在欧元兑日元突破三角区后第一个阻力在140.5 的汇价,若能够站稳的话则有望继续上升。而且此时趋势已明显站上Kingsley 老师教的3MA方法,显示上升趋势较强劲。</div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">若有</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">留意到我之前所分析这货币走势,大家可以看见该货币已经突破三角而且完成了</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">9500</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">点的获利空间。整体趋势来看近期该价位已触及</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">2013</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">年的高点,若本周无法突破前高而形成双顶建议持有买单的交易员可以部分获利平仓。</span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">预</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">期走势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">145.6</span></div>
<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">147</span><div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">143.6</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">141</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">*基本面需密切留意欧洲和日本两大央行的货币政策。</span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-size: large;">英镑兑加币趋势分析</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;"> 由于上周</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">GBP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">基本面数据并不理想,而加拿大数据则是表现良好而导致该货</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">币形成明显地带量跌穿下降趋</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">势</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。交易者可以多留</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">意该货</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">币。由于该价格已跌穿</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">auto
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
50,100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">以及</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">,以技术层面来看,未来极大可能会有一波跌势。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">预期走势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.79</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.808</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.754</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.720</span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-90952453207214591362014-11-16T23:02:00.000-08:002014-11-16T23:02:42.885-08:00从瑞士黄金公投看趋势!<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 10.5pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.0; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd; text-indent: 11.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11pt;">自<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月开始,瑞士央行为开始为捍卫瑞士的瑞朗设限在欧元兑瑞朗为<span lang="EN-US">1.2000</span>;而美金兑瑞朗则是<span lang="EN-US">0.88 </span>。早前主要因为美国次贷危机和欧债危机爆发,另外资不涌入瑞士影响到其本身的出口和经济发展。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11pt;">在上周五,欧元兑瑞郎再度跌破<span lang="EN-US">26</span>个月低,欧元兑瑞郎目前仅比瑞士央行设定的<span lang="EN-US">1</span>欧元兑<span lang="EN-US">1.20</span>瑞郎的下限仅高出<span lang="EN-US">0.0015</span>瑞郎!由于近期欧元区经济不断走软和面临通货紧缩的情况下将逼使</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">欧洲央行准备采用激进措施推动经济增长,提升了市场对瑞郎的需求。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11pt;">11</span></u></b><b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11pt;">月<span lang="EN-US">30</span>号瑞士央行举行黄金公投<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">瑞士将于<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">30</span>号为<span lang="EN-US">“</span>拯救我们瑞士的黄金<span lang="EN-US">”</span>的倡议进行投票,该倡议若通过,将迫使瑞士央行持有的黄金至少占其资产比例的<span lang="EN-US">20%</span>。该倡议还禁止出售央行所持有的黄金资产,且要求取回所有瑞士黄金储备。</span>黄金储备已使得瑞士央行依赖市场发展。去年黄金价格经历了自<span lang="EN-US">1981</span>年以来的最大跌幅,导致瑞士央行损失<span lang="EN-US">91</span>亿瑞郎,此后其被迫取消分红。<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11pt;">尽管公投可能不会通过(支持率大约在<span lang="EN-US">44%</span>),倘若一旦通过的话将迫使瑞士央行在进行任何</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">外汇干预时买入黄金。换言之,很可能在<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月<span lang="EN-US">1</span>号开盘后黄金一度大涨!<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11pt;">据外媒在<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">16</span>号的报道中,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">瑞士央<span lang="EN-US">(SNB)</span>委员祖布鲁克<span lang="EN-US">(Fritz Zurbruegg)</span>反对该国为了支持央行扩大</span>黄金在外汇储备中的比重而进行公投,称这样的举动恐怕会让瑞士央行保持欧元对瑞郎汇率下限的政策工具面临莫大的风险。</b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11pt;"><br />
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;">祖布鲁克认为,如果瑞士民众设法让公投通过,瑞士央行干预外汇储备的能力被大幅削弱,并导致瑞士经济遭受负面冲击。</span>对于瑞士央行所设定的欧元对瑞郎<span lang="EN-US">1.20</span>汇率下限措施,祖布鲁克指出,这一汇率下限至关重要,需要尽可能地长期性保持。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11pt;">摩根大通<span lang="EN-US">(JP Morgan)</span>也预计,一旦瑞士黄金公投顺利通关,黄金价格有望大幅上涨,因为在那样的情况之下,瑞士央行不得不在之后五年的时间里增持大约<span lang="EN-US">1500</span>吨黄金、也就是每年购买<span lang="EN-US">300</span>吨黄金,这样一来,在全球每年存在<span lang="EN-US">4000</span>吨黄金需求的情况下,每年<span lang="EN-US">300</span>吨黄金的购买量所占比重也就达到<span lang="EN-US">7.5%</span>。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><u><span style="color: #404040; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">超级马里奥再次施法?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">在瑞士央行黄金公投前,欧洲央行行长德拉基将参与欧洲议会经济与货币事务委员会季度听证会和对担保债券购买规模</span>做出发表。由于近期整体欧元区经济放缓,通货紧缩压力不断增加的情况下,很可能逼使欧洲央行缩短干扰的时间点。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11pt;">在<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">17</span>号和<span lang="EN-US">21</span>号两天将迎来欧洲央行行长德拉基的发布,这两天将会是让我们在迎接瑞士黄金公投前给我们的指引去做部署。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11pt;">倘若欧洲央行在本周内如期的增加宽松规模来挽救自身经济,这无疑影响了瑞士本身的经济。根据瑞士央行在<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年所设限与欧元汇率的<span lang="EN-US">1.2</span>下限来看,瑞士央行干扰只是时间上的问题!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">瑞士央行干扰很可能只是时间上的问题,但最终的影响力将是我们要关注的!很多分析员觉得本次的影响力将不会比<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年干预来得严重,原因是瑞士并无通胀压力。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">虽说本次瑞士央行干预并未伴随着通胀压力,但瑞士黄金公投将影响干预的规模!这取决于<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">30</span>号的公投结果!<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">倘若公投成功,瑞士央行将在未来五年内买入<span lang="EN-US">1500</span>吨的黄金,且不能在市场上抛售。这将剥削了其央行干扰的影响力!相对地,若公投不成功的话,瑞士央行干预的影响力将不可忽视!<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">欧元兑法郎未来<span lang="EN-US">3</span>个月的趋势预测:<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">第一阶段:</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">预计欧元兑瑞郎持稳于<span lang="EN-US">1.2
</span>,并上探<span lang="EN-US">1.22</span>的汇价。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">黄金兑美金未来<span lang="EN-US">1</span>个月的趋势预测:<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">若公投成功,黄金将可能短暂提振,长期依然取决于美国就业前景和升息为大前提。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">瑞士黄金公投通过,短暂将刺激买盘(但切勿操之过急,因为瑞士不会马上买入<span lang="EN-US">300</span>吨黄金)。预测黄金将从<span lang="EN-US">1190</span>反弹至<span lang="EN-US">1230</span>附近。但挑战<span lang="EN-US">1230</span>前,需密切关注<span lang="EN-US">1200</span>的心理价位。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">澳币兑法郎未来<span lang="EN-US">3</span>个月的趋势预测:<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></div>
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**</span><span style="color: #f79646; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent6;">以上的分析截止今天以前的数据和报告进行分析,并提供免费的个人观点进行参考。参考后请自身进行分析和判断,本人将不会附上任何投资上的亏损。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #f79646; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-themecolor: accent6;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Tahoma","sans-serif";">Brought to u by :Kingsley Tan</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br />
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-89076871333972221772014-11-12T16:23:00.000-08:002014-11-12T16:23:56.964-08:00美国后QE时代之扭转乾坤<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 22pt;">
<span style="font-family: 宋体;">美国联邦公开市场委员会<span lang="EN-US">(FOMC)</span>在<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">30</span>号本地时间凌晨<span lang="EN-US">2</span>点宣布彻底结束了实施了自<span lang="EN-US">12</span>年九月份以来的第三轮量化宽松<span lang="EN-US">(QE3)</span>政策。<b>货币政策会议结束之后的决议声明中表示,劳动力资源未充分利用率逐步降低,基于市场的通胀率衡量措施已经在一定程度上下滑,长期通胀率预期仍然保持稳定,可能相当长一段时间维持低利率。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">上周,市场迎来了期待已久的美国<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月非农就业人口和失业率数据,结果非农就业数据表现不及预期,而失业率较预期小幅回落。虽然就业数据不及预期,但市场仍然对美国的就业市场非常的乐观,不过这真的意味着美元强势回归吗?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">让我们仔细的看一看具体的就业数据吧!<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span>美国<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月非农数据和失业率具体显示:<span lang="EN-US"> <br />
</span>美国<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月季调后非农就业人口<span lang="EN-US">21.4</span>万人,预期<span lang="EN-US">23.5</span>万人,前值<span lang="EN-US">25.6</span>万人。【萎缩】<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span>美国<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月失业率<span lang="EN-US">5.8%</span>,创<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月以来新低,预期<span lang="EN-US">5.9%</span>,前值<span lang="EN-US">5.9%</span>。【下降】<span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span>其他分项数据显示:<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span>美国<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月就业市场劳动参与率<span lang="EN-US">62.8%</span>,前值<span lang="EN-US">62.7%</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span>美国<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月私营部门就业人口增长<span lang="EN-US">20.9</span>万人,预期增长<span lang="EN-US">22.5</span>万人,前值<span lang="EN-US">24.4</span>万人。<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span>美国<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月制造业就业人口增长<span lang="EN-US">1.5</span>万人,预期增长<span lang="EN-US">1</span>万人,前值<span lang="EN-US">0.9</span>万人。<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span>美国<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月平均每小时工资月率<span lang="EN-US">0.1%</span>,预期<span lang="EN-US">0.2%</span>,前值<span lang="EN-US">0.0%</span>;年率<span lang="EN-US">2.0%</span>,预期<span lang="EN-US">2.1%</span>,前值<span lang="EN-US">2.0%</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span>美国<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月平均每周工时<span lang="EN-US">34.6</span>小时,预期<span lang="EN-US">34.6</span>小时,前值<span lang="EN-US">34.6</span>小时修正为<span lang="EN-US">34.5</span>小时。<span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span>有分析评论指出,美国<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月非农就业人数温和增加,失业率降至<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月以来最低<span lang="EN-US">(</span>尽管更多人口加入劳动力队伍<span lang="EN-US">)</span>,薪资小幅上涨,表明劳动力市场日益走强。可是,这同时还存在另一个问题:在美国实际上还存在将近<span lang="EN-US">1</span>亿失业人口、劳动参与率偏低的情况下,当前的通胀率实际上不但不足以普遍迫使企业停止裁员,还不足以迫使雇主们上调雇员的薪资。<span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span>美国最新<span lang="EN-US">CPI</span>恐怕录得相当长一段时期以来最小的大面积物价升幅,撇开<span lang="EN-US">CPI</span>数据不论,美国劳工部统计局<span lang="EN-US">(BLS)</span>在<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月非农就业报告中指出,<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月名义小时薪资月率意外地收窄至持平,则凸显出实际薪资其实再次下降。美国劳工部统计局在上周五发布的个人收入报告中指出,实际小时个人收入月率再次下降<span lang="EN-US">0.2%</span>,则让人对美国消费者薪资下降深信不疑。<span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span>这还意味着,自<span lang="EN-US">2014</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份以来的七个月里,实际小时薪资仅一个月上涨!而这在很大程度上源于<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月份通胀率下滑。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: rgb(245, 248, 253); font-family: 宋体;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">美国就业市场的矛盾信号需等到美联储在<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">10</span>号晚上<span lang="EN-US">11</span>点发布的就业市场状况指数<span lang="EN-US">(LMCI)</span>将进一步对就业市场的情况进行诠释,鉴于此前美联储已在上周的会议上透露了对经济情况乐观的看法,因此该指数仍有可能相比此前走强,并使投资者对美元走势前景重拾信心。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体;">美国后<span lang="EN-US">QE</span>时代来临?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">美国在<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">30</span>号结束多年来的量化宽松后,市场迎来诸多利好美金的信号,美金将扭转乾坤成为<span lang="EN-US">2015</span>的明星货币?别急,别急。。还不一定!美国扭转乾坤的<span lang="EN-US">3</span>大关键!<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体;">扭转乾坤关键(一):<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">虽说美国<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月份的就业人数不及预期,但是多个月保持在<span lang="EN-US">20</span>万人以上,依然属于利好。可是,美联储主席耶伦在此后却表示若美国就业市场再次陷入危机的话,美联储依然有干预的准备!<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">根据以上耶伦的表态我们可以了解到美国就业报告依然是我们值得密切留意的数据。作者建议需密切留意<b>美国非农就业报告,参与率,失业率和就业市场状况指数直到明年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月,</b>因为年尾通常数据将会被季节性因素给扭曲,容易误导投资者。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体;">扭转乾坤关键(二):<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">在美联储议会声明后,也意味着美国的就业市场并不再是最主要关注的焦点。而焦点将转向美国通货膨胀数据,因为通胀走高也意味着汇率和利率将伴随着走高。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">关于美国通货膨胀数据,我们可以密切关注美国消费者物价指数(<span lang="EN-US">CPI</span>),</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">平均每小时工资年率。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">若美国就业逐渐改善,平均每小时工资温和上涨,这将带动消费者信心指数。从而对美国<span lang="EN-US">2015</span>年升息的预期将会更显著。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体;">扭转乾坤关键(三):<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">主要经济体的经济数据将扭转局势?在主要经济体(美国,欧洲,英国,日本等)中,美国很可能因为季节性因素导致美国经济数据持续利好,相反,欧洲,英国和日元则是依然处于低迷,甚至恶化。这更加凸显了两极化的情况!<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">在<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">14</span>号中,欧元区三大经济体(德国,法国和意大利)将陆续发布第三季度<span lang="EN-US">GDP</span>和欧元区将发布<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月欧元区<span lang="EN-US">CPI</span>。欧盟委员会预计,随着欧元区的经济活动逐步回暖、薪资水平上升,<span lang="EN-US">2014</span>、<span lang="EN-US">2015</span>和<span lang="EN-US">2016</span>年欧元区通胀率将分别达到<span lang="EN-US">0.6%</span>、<span lang="EN-US">1.0%</span>和<span lang="EN-US">1.6%</span>。若这些数据表现不佳,很可能拖累欧元进一步下行。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">此外,在万圣节当天日本央行担忧持续恶化的通缩现象将导致到日本再次陷入泥沼<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">而宣布扩大宽松规模让市场惊吓万分!当天兑日元货币全面走涨,而美金兑日元更是挑战<span lang="EN-US">115</span>(<span lang="EN-US">07</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月的高点)。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">最后,英国央行虽然在货币政策上保持一样态度,但是通胀报告和失业率也将是市场关注的焦点之一!英国央行下周若调降通胀及成长预估,可能激励金融市场扩大押注该行在<span lang="EN-US">2015</span>年中以前都不会升息,可能要等到英国国会<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月大选过后、甚或可能更晚才会升息。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">总结以上的论点,假设欧元区和英国的数据不佳,再加上日本加大宽松和美国收紧钞的情况下,这无疑凸显美国的前景!若美国就业和通胀(升息的双重指标)两数据逐渐改善的情况下,我们可以期待美金的强势回归了!<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #e69138; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">*</span></b><b><span style="color: #e69138; font-family: 宋体; line-height: 115%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以上文章纯属个人分析后的分享,绝无构成投资用途,本人将不会负责任何损失。</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-90861596699966977772014-10-27T04:07:00.000-07:002014-10-27T04:07:32.680-07:00Steffi 技术分析<b style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: #444444; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.2859992980957px;"><u><span style="font-size: medium;">欧元兑加币趋势分析</span></u></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">【</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">欧元兑加币,</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">D1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">(截止6</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">/10/2014)】</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">EURCAD</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">早前已在上升趋势通道顶部完成一波跌势近期来到了趋势通道底部价</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">位</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.42</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。从技术角度观测近期我</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">们可以</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">把获利空间看至下一个趋势通道顶部(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.46</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">)</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">,</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">也是</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Auto </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> 38.2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之下。但如果跌破上升趋势通道,下个支撑可看至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.40</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">若这几</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">天</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">价</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">格如预期般沿着趋势通道内走涨,我</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">们可以把获利</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">点先看至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">R1,</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">即</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">是</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">auto
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">23</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之下(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.435</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">)。如果升势依然强劲并站</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">上</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">MA100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之上话下个获利价位可看至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">R2 (1.447)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">,再次突破我们可以把获利看至
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">R3 (1.46)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">,也是趋势通道顶部。</span></div>
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<span style="text-indent: 0in;">预期走势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.435</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.447</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">1.46</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.40</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;"><b><u>澳币兑法郎趋势分析</u></b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB48mnsKgDEWDqAsD2Zpvgujiok1v-K7Knpg234KklUd77ENZyCX494NOQMkIRMf5zoeYy6VfwdmU0_3rnd_8NFXLekxogaR-pJRh9LoGh5Q8eSMlMxb8W_1qKtP89pu07BZ_ljf9iMW8/s1600/AUDCHF1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB48mnsKgDEWDqAsD2Zpvgujiok1v-K7Knpg234KklUd77ENZyCX494NOQMkIRMf5zoeYy6VfwdmU0_3rnd_8NFXLekxogaR-pJRh9LoGh5Q8eSMlMxb8W_1qKtP89pu07BZ_ljf9iMW8/s1600/AUDCHF1.png" height="312" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">早前我有说到</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">AUDCHF</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">价格诺从新进入上升趋势通道内,那么即将会有一波升势的到来。从技术角度观察,该货币已经再次站上</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">MA200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">并回到趋势通道内。下一个</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">挑</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">战的价位是</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.847,</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">也就是</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">MA50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">以及</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之上。假设成功站上并突破</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Auto </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> 23.6,</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">那么下个获利空间可看至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.872.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">反之,如果价格再次跌穿</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Auto</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">38.2%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">,那么我们该留意它是否能再次站稳在</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">MA200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">,诺跌穿</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">MA200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">该货币即将进入一波跌势。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">预期走势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.846<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.860</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.87<br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.83</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.824</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;"><b><u>欧元兑日元趋势分析</u></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">若了解这样的图表形态,对交易上有很大帮助。这样的形态可以带给投资者很多的交投指引,让投资者在外汇交易中更为具有优势。投资者可以从三角形的走势中,看到市场中多空力量的对比以及目前的市场走势,从而可以做出准确的交易判断。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">从这图表观察不管趋势突破或是跌穿,我们可以察觉一比一的获利空间大约有</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">9500</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">点。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">若趋势突破走涨,以大趋势来看,获利空间可追至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2008</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年的支持位(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">147</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">)。反之,若趋势是跌穿下降三角形,获利价位可追至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">127</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-weight: bold;">**以上的分析截止今天以前的数据和报告进行分析,并提供免费的个人观点进行参考。参考后请自身进行分析和判断,本人将不会附上任何投资上的亏损。</span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-75279828813957630642014-10-20T10:39:00.003-07:002014-10-20T10:45:46.925-07:00Steffi 技术分析<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b><u><span style="font-size: large;">欧元兑法郎趋势分析</span></u></b></div>
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【欧元兑法郎,D1(截止6/10/2014)】</div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span> 欧元兑法郎</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">早前(6/10/2014)已在</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">小</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">型的上升趋势通道顶部完成一波跌势近期来到了趋势通道底部价</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">位</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.207</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。从技术角度观测近期我</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">们可以</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">把获利空间看至下一个趋势通道顶部(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.213</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">)。但如果跌势依然强劲跌破小型的上升趋势通道,下个支撑可看至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.204</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。</span></div>
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<span style="text-indent: 0in;">【欧元兑法郎,D1(截止6/10/2014)】</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 18pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">若这几</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">天</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">价</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">格如预期般沿着趋势通道内走涨,我</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">们可以把获利</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">点先看</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">auto
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
76.4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之下(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.211</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">)。如果升势依然强劲突破下降趋势线并站稳</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">MA50(红色的均线)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">与</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">100</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">(浅蓝色的均线)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">之上话表示大体的趋势已开始转向升势,下个阻力可看至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">1.214</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">。直到趋势站上</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">MA200(灰</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">色的均线)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">那么就能确定未来趋势即将会呈现一波升势的到来。</span></div>
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预期走势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.211</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.214</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.204</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.202</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;"><b><u>欧元兑加币趋势分析</u></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">【欧元兑加币,D1】</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> <span style="font-size: large;"> </span>欧元兑加币</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">已站上</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">MA50</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">(红色的均线)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">之上来到了</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">MA100</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">(浅蓝色的均线)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">之下。图表可观察到上升形态已悄悄开始形成。以技术层面看该价格将随之回跌至</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">上</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">升趋势通道底点,诺价位持稳并无法再创新低该价位将形成支撑位,并展开另段上升趋势。反之,诺价位持续跌穿上升趋势通道底部,那么下个支撑位可看至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">auto</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">fibo100</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">
之上(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">1.403</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;"> 如果</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">这几天价格如预期般沿着趋势通道内走跌,我们可以把获利点先看至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.423</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。等待它持稳并开始开启升势那么我们可以把获利空间看至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">auto </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> 23.6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之下。如果升势依然强劲突破前高并站稳</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">MA50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">与</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之上话表示大体的趋势已开始转向升势,下个阻力可看至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">auto </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> 38.2 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。</span></div>
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预期走势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.450<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.460<br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.423</span></div>
<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.403</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 18pt;"><br /><br /><b><u>澳币兑法郎趋势分析</u></b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGYO_-4INtthUerLQ4LR3Gr8tyrrbjkcrsKVqr4JoBIdBpq5jGAFYwtnolzKVXBziZwraiMIrxgZj8sJhT6zLmOYF-l-KLZHW-DmwYezLUwomfX5rBVEpOkgJtIMkYM2LCB1GEWY86jUc/s1600/AUDCHF.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGYO_-4INtthUerLQ4LR3Gr8tyrrbjkcrsKVqr4JoBIdBpq5jGAFYwtnolzKVXBziZwraiMIrxgZj8sJhT6zLmOYF-l-KLZHW-DmwYezLUwomfX5rBVEpOkgJtIMkYM2LCB1GEWY86jUc/s1600/AUDCHF.png" height="312" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">【澳币兑法郎,D1】</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 22pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">图表</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">显示</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">AUDCHF</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">已跌破下降趋势通道。从中我们可</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">观</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">察到的是虽然已跌穿趋势通道,但蜡烛在上星期无法跌穿</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">MA200</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">(灰</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">色的均线)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">并站稳该支撑位</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">Auto </span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">Fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;"> 50%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">开始走涨,若价格从新进入上升趋势通道内,那么即将会有一波升势的到来。反之,如果价格无法站稳</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">MA200</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">(灰</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">色的均线)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">并跌穿</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">Auto</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">Fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; text-indent: 0in;">50%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 0in;">之下,那么该货币即将进入一波跌势。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">预期走势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.834<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.846<br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.823</span></div>
<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">0.816</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;"><b><u>英镑兑澳币趋势分析</u></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">【英镑兑澳币,D1】</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span>图表</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">显</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">示</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">GBPAUD</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">早前已</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">突</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">破下降趋势通道来到近期的高点</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.866</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Auto </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> 76.4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之下)。从中我们可</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">观</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">察到近期形成一波小型的下跌趋势通道现在已站上</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Auto</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">61.8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。诺价格继续跌穿那么短期内我们可以根据小型的下跌趋势通把获利空间先追至</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Auto</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之上。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> Auto</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Fibo50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">将会是关键价位。如果价格持稳该价位那么即将会有一波升势的到来。反之,如果价格跌穿</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">auto</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">fibo</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">并且成功跌破</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">MA50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">,</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">以及</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之下,那么该价位有可能从新回到下跌趋势通道内。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">预期走势:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.862<br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">816</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(<span style="font-family: Calibri;">2</span>):<span style="font-family: Calibri;">1.800</span></span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-26993286717063688862014-10-14T00:00:00.000-07:002014-10-14T00:01:06.160-07:00黄金趋势预测<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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黄金昨天在1227附近得到上升趋势的支持往上反弹,创近期的高点1237.01 。大家今天的关注就是最终黄金是否会突破成功?就让我来为大家做一个分析吧!</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxZVUgWzhyphenhyphensrwfxhkW7Jd18b7KCOMAsUCSyqKrO9cze-n_NyYOntMq3oS9vGlh7TxS05cZ6XP6V8THYyLoAYXo6xkW-bQ_NUKHnJQ1RA9yHvzJ4ZtSRiKoq3WaIuWat-CL-uN5WcQYsnA/s1600/GOLD+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxZVUgWzhyphenhyphensrwfxhkW7Jd18b7KCOMAsUCSyqKrO9cze-n_NyYOntMq3oS9vGlh7TxS05cZ6XP6V8THYyLoAYXo6xkW-bQ_NUKHnJQ1RA9yHvzJ4ZtSRiKoq3WaIuWat-CL-uN5WcQYsnA/s1600/GOLD+2.jpg" height="382" width="640" /></a></div>
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【黄金兑美金,M30】</div>
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首先,我们从30分钟的图来做观察的话,我们现在会发现黄金兑美金开始慢慢走跌了!但问题是那里才是真正的入场点呢?<br /><b><br />入场点分析:</b><br />1)黄金已形成“跌三角”的形态。若跌破代表趋势有可能一比一的往下跌!<br />2)图中的白色线【1233.5】是今天的支持,若跌破代表着黄金将继续创新低!<br />3)今天的piviot level 则是在昨天的阻力价位和上升趋势线的支持点附近。</div>
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4)趋势表中的“6”号是从9号【最高点】下来的,若持续往下掉的话,代表趋势进入跌势!<br />5)预测一天波动为1477 ,但是今天已波动的趋势为377 ;换句话说,若黄金兑美金往下跌破支持和”跌三角“的话,趋势还有大约1100点的趋势可以跌!<br /></div>
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以上五点是黄金跌势的五大关键!您”汇“了吗?<br /><br /><b><u>具体未来趋势分析:</u></b></div>
<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC657563Xm2G1TfvvOn0GwbWWdMLzDm_uRSSHmaSFFXamOOP4fSM0bCjWtOGxjCyo64cX9mHn33D3NKnnKNauK9f-DhRyaklzJJcLa5jz7Wp6IVP4ebn1bOkgOT_gGBHJ5HbriAaqn1DU/s1600/GOLD+predict.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC657563Xm2G1TfvvOn0GwbWWdMLzDm_uRSSHmaSFFXamOOP4fSM0bCjWtOGxjCyo64cX9mHn33D3NKnnKNauK9f-DhRyaklzJJcLa5jz7Wp6IVP4ebn1bOkgOT_gGBHJ5HbriAaqn1DU/s1600/GOLD+predict.jpg" height="390" width="640" /></a><br />
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【黄金兑美金,H4】</div>
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从4小时图来做观察的话,您可以从以上的图中发现黄金兑美金在1238附近遇到阻力无法突破!而且Stochastics已经开始交叉往下了!若突破失败的话,黄金兑美金将会到什么价位呢?<br /><br /><b>趋势预测:</b></div>
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若这波黄金无法在1238突破往上的话,那么黄金兑美金下一波将可能为<b>”头肩底“的形态!</b><br /><br /> 首先,黄金将会跌破”跌三角“!跌势的五大关键刚刚已分析了,可看回去!此波往下掉入1230以下的话,黄金兑美金将可能最低到1205的价位!大家需在这价位观察是否有跌破的现象?<br /><br /> 再来,若黄金兑美金无法在1205跌破的话便会完成<b>”头肩底“</b>的形态!【看上图】。此形态的关键在黄金要完成<b>”头肩底“</b>之后可以突破1240之后有望上探1270的价位!大家可以密切留意哦!</div>
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<b>入场策略:</b>第一步:若跌破1230,黄金兑美金则可以下探1205 ,止损在1238 -1240 。<br /><br />第二步:若黄金兑美金没跌破1205,并且完成头肩底。先可以在1205-1238之间小仓入场;等待突破1240以上之后便可以依据个人的承担风险能力而入场,上探1270。<br /><br /><b>除了以上两点的话,我个人不太鼓励入场;需留意基本面新闻而定!</b><br /><br /></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: orange; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">**</span><span style="color: orange; font-family: 宋体;">以上的分析截止今天以前的数据和报告进行分析,并提供免费的个人观点进行参考。参考后请自身进行分析和判断,本人将不会附上任何投资上的亏损。</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-20545787406161702492014-10-06T22:48:00.000-07:002014-10-06T22:48:08.888-07:00*黄金星期四*<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">截止上周五晚上强劲的</span>美国经济数据打压金价再度跌至年内低位,并一举跌破<span lang="EN-US">1200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">美金</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">盎司整数关口。特别是受到来自美国就业市场的利好令黄金兑美金跌破</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">天</span><span lang="EN-US">1296</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的支持。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">而本周,黄金再次迎来巨大的挑战,最终能否重返</span><span lang="EN-US">1200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">并反弹需要取决于星期四凌晨的美联储议会了!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">市场最为关注的非农就业数据具体数据,表现异常靓丽。具体显示,美国</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">月非农就业人口增长</span><span lang="EN-US">24.8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">万人,预期增长</span><span lang="EN-US">21.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">万人;美国</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">月失业率</span><span lang="EN-US">5.9%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">,预期</span><span lang="EN-US">6.1%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。</span>此外,表现较好的美国经济数据还包括美国核心<span lang="EN-US">PCE</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">物价指数、达拉斯联储商业活动指数、美国</span><span lang="EN-US">ADP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">就业人数、</span><span lang="EN-US">ISM</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">非制造业指数等。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本次非农就业人口加速增加,且</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份失业率录得</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年新低,或使美联储在</span><span lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年中期或更早加息。此外,鉴于非农报告是衡量美国经济健康状态最重要的指标,而本次数据凸显今年就业市场取得的进展之大,预计将在</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日的国会选举中助奥巴马一臂之力。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">虽然美元指数在上周受美金利好,连续</span><span lang="EN-US">19</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">周走涨,报</span><span lang="EN-US">86.48 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">但大家或许没留意到其实美国</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份的劳动力参与率也降至</span><span lang="EN-US">62.7%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,创近</span><span lang="EN-US">36</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">(1978</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月以来</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最低;这意味着,没有参与就业市场的美国人口已达到</span><span lang="EN-US">9260</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万人,创纪录新高。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">非农就业报告细节:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月有将近</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">930</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万人在找工作,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">710</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万人因无法找到全职工作而继续从事兼职岗位工作。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月劳动参与率由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">62.8%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">跌至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">62.7%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,创</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">1978</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月以来最低。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">U6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">失业率下降</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">0.2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个百分点至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">11.8%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">2008</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">10</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月以来最低。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">全文</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">;</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/C/20141003/201410032112191481.html">http://www.fx678.com/C/20141003/201410032112191481.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><u>美联储摘要将主导黄金的走势?</u></span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本周黄金星期四市场将迎来美联储公布</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">16-17</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号上的会议纪要,。毫无疑问这将是市场最关注的事件之一!因为</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份的美国非农报告有抢眼的表现,而美联储正临近开放式</span><span lang="EN-US">QE</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">宣告结束的尾部,且经济复苏的强劲表现令市场热议其首次启动加息周期的时机,因而,美联储纪要的措辞将受到密切关注,特别是</span><span lang="EN-US">FOMC</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">对何时加息看。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">16-17</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日决议的声明中,美联储虽然在政策前瞻指引中未删除“相当一段时期维持低利率”的指引,但市场普遍认为,美联储正在朝着加息的道路上迈进。近来持续强劲的</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">美国经济</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">数据,再度强化“美联储正迈入渐收紧政策步伐”的市场预期。市场无疑特别关注美国加息的时间点。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /><br /><b><u>黄金呈现反弹趋势?</u></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFHc6dR82G1dD12p-WCZMhxwZgEJgrFBiZli9LyCoyXKCFdBb57bJEPAn4EC5QALpmGjme7SLvCBWZHJHAwl6_6otoUJnTA5F4n0mw8UNugbeT5wOa4xj2mE9myGq-3na0vkNc8-KY_E0/s1600/gold.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFHc6dR82G1dD12p-WCZMhxwZgEJgrFBiZli9LyCoyXKCFdBb57bJEPAn4EC5QALpmGjme7SLvCBWZHJHAwl6_6otoUJnTA5F4n0mw8UNugbeT5wOa4xj2mE9myGq-3na0vkNc8-KY_E0/s1600/gold.jpg" height="386" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">我们可以从黄金的天图看到黄金在昨天创最低1183,距离最低的1178仅有5块美金的距离。目前很明显可以从黄金天图看到双底的形成,这也代表着黄金可能一比一的往上突破?这完全取决于本周四凌晨2点的FOMC耶伦最终会为美国升息的时间点做什么样的解说。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">此外,昨天</span> <span style="background: white; color: #141823; font-family: 宋体;">美联储新就业市场状况指数</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"> (LMCI)</span><span style="background: white; color: #141823; font-family: 宋体;">结果为:</span></div>
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<span style="background: white;">3</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体;">月份为上升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white;"> 4.9</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
<span style="background: white;">4</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体;">月份为上升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white;">7.1</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
<span style="background: white;">5</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体;">月份为上升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white;">6.3</span><br />
<span class="textexposedshow">6</span><span class="textexposedshow"><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体;">月份为上升</span></span><span class="textexposedshow"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white;">5.1</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white;"><br />
<span class="textexposedshow">7</span></span><span class="textexposedshow"><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体;">月份为上升</span></span><span class="textexposedshow"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white;">2.7</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white;"><br />
<span class="textexposedshow">8</span></span><span class="textexposedshow"><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体;">月份为上升</span></span><span class="textexposedshow"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white;">2.0</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">凸显美国就业并未如市场所想象中的理想,纯属市场“单恋”的想法。美元指数昨天自消息发布后跌破86;而非美货币全面走涨。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">在周四凌晨前贵金属以及非美货币都将处于盘整,等待美国的FOMC之后方能更加明确未来方向如何。这几天交易需谨慎,等待美国摘要后有明确的方向再做决定。<br /><br /></span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-81606191205795210622014-10-02T18:31:00.000-07:002014-10-02T18:32:06.984-07:00中国高铁正在如何改变全世界?<div align="left" class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 还记得早在大约</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年前爆发的金融危机吗?当时爆发了世界性的“次贷危机”,</span> <span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美国政府和美联储便为“达到不能倒”的银行注入了过万亿的资金,令资本市场的资金过剩而资金则不断的从美国流出往新兴国家流入。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中国则是其中一个不断吸纳过多“热钱”的国家之一。中国政府便使用不断涌入的热钱大量建设,中国的国内生产总值</span><span lang="EN-US">(GDP)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不断的蓬勃增长,迅速成为世界大国之一。可是好景不常,中国的国内生产总值</span><span lang="EN-US">(GDP)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">快速成长主要是受益于大量基础建设和建楼而造成的,可是以大部分的中国人民的收入来看是不足以购买这些楼的,在供不应求的情况下,中国的国内生产总值</span><span lang="EN-US">(GDP)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">开始逐渐下滑。被外界比喻为“假</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">”!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">自</span><span lang="EN-US">2012</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年尾伯南克宣称美国经济正在复苏,就业市场也将改善,美联储很快便会缩减量化宽松。伯南克的一番话令外界对美国重拾信心,而作为避风港的中国肯定不再受宠。那么中国又有和对策来确保中国在国际上的大国地位呢?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“中国牌高铁”向世界招手!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">早在</span><span lang="EN-US">2008-2012</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年间,大家都可能非常熟悉听到</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">看到</span><span lang="EN-US"> “Made In China” </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的字眼!但是在未来的</span><span lang="EN-US">5-10</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年或许不再容易看得到了!因为现今的中国早已慢慢的在改变当中!未来可能可以乘坐高铁环游东盟,甚至去到中国!惊讶吗?难以置信吗?那么一定要往下看咯!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中国高铁全球梦!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中国有非常大的决心成为世界一哥!中国目前的地理位置非常有优势【下图】;从中国往右手边则是美国,往左手边则是欧盟,直径往下的话则是大部分的东盟国。中国向世界宣传他们的“中国牌高铁”技术好,成本低,希望这些国家都使用它。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUIIRePiZRALBoN_xbbqfOFZtX6RnfpH-PaKet520aZZxHrNFPpMQRSOnw7ia_4pywqVhw4rqiw30bJWJnlydRmzi-o2fppiaYloOy8ZO8Smn4XbUVXgtQxA0RNhyphenhyphenMh9CB0eVo7OJ5C9c/s1600/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E9%AB%98%E9%93%81%E6%A2%A6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUIIRePiZRALBoN_xbbqfOFZtX6RnfpH-PaKet520aZZxHrNFPpMQRSOnw7ia_4pywqVhw4rqiw30bJWJnlydRmzi-o2fppiaYloOy8ZO8Smn4XbUVXgtQxA0RNhyphenhyphenMh9CB0eVo7OJ5C9c/s1600/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E9%AB%98%E9%93%81%E6%A2%A6.jpg" height="406" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">**图片源自东方日报<br /><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">自去年开始,中国总理和国务部总理纷纷向世界宣传与推广中国高铁。特别是今年初开始,国务部总理李克强更是积极的推广中国高铁,而这又如何令中国受益其中?</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)中国在</span><span lang="EN-US">2012</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年间已面对产能过剩的问题,因为中国国内供不应求。所以必须向外发展</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)中国正在积极转型为“世界贸易中心”,并非再是“世界工厂”。生产部分则是由:缅甸,越南,泰国,寮国,马来西亚等等制造;而中国的角色则是变向为“批发商”,把货批给欧盟和美国。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中国高铁梦对中国的经济成长非常有利!不但能解产能过剩的问题,而且还可能链接全世界。中国拥有大量的资源</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">原料,如;钢铁,矿铁石,稀土等(都是建设的材料),这样就能消耗这些原料,而且可令钢铁和矿铁石的期货与现货价格回弹。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">目前除了中国自身已增加自身对高铁的投资额外,陆续更多国家如:欧洲,非洲,英国等已同意接受中国高铁,而且都由中国承包。这不尽令中国收益其中之外,也同时促进两之间的关系。自</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月初,泰国也与中国达成总成本约为</span><span lang="EN-US">7414</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿泰铢的高铁项目。这项重要的高铁项目将很大程度上提高泰国国内的运输能力,将泰国的边境城市、泰国境内主要城市、首都曼谷,以及很多港口、机场、货运枢纽中心等重要结点连通。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">世界银行赞扬中国高铁科技好,成本低!</span></u></b><span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">世界银行早前发布的一份报告称:“截至去年底,中国铁路总里程已超过</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万公里(</span><span lang="EN-US">6,200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">英里),在建高铁里程超过</span><span lang="EN-US">1.2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万公里,现有高铁网已远远超过其他任何国家。全文洋溢着</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">壮举</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">世界一流</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">等赞美之词,称中国高铁网在高运量的同时保持着良好的可靠性和乘坐舒适性。</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">而最重要的是成本,其成本却最多只占其他国家高铁成本的三分之二。</span><span lang="EN-US">”<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">世界银行高级交通专家奥利维耶</span><span lang="EN-US">(Gerald
Ollivier)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以及另两名撰写该报告的世行顾问预测,中国高铁基础设施约为每公里</span><span lang="EN-US">1,700</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万到</span><span lang="EN-US">2,100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万美元,而欧洲为每公里</span><span lang="EN-US">2,500</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万到</span><span lang="EN-US">3,900</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万美元。报告称,美国加利福尼亚州高铁建设成本或高达每公里</span><span lang="EN-US">5,200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万美元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">高速铁路</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一词通常指最高速度为每小时</span><span lang="EN-US">250</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">公里及(</span><span lang="EN-US">155</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">英里)及以上的铁路,不过一些中国高铁的设计速度达到每小时</span><span lang="EN-US">350</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">公里。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">该报告称,除了较低的劳动力、土地征用和搬迁安置成本外,报告称,中国高铁建设的低成本也得益于过去七年左右庞大的业务量。报告称,如此之大的业务量激发了施工单位及设备供应团体的积极性,迅速提升产能和采用创新技术。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6EcS-VCybyqhRrX14vC6fJowo19t172nqzsAhzyUU8lT6-pvRMRljVuT7p_C6nGEnQe6ytmVRh1f23JgrLEqQQibLpTyRlY5T23F3TynOz2zzMZbEiWRmvuYyfG6WnoGFfzq-GDCV4yI/s1600/%E5%8D%97%E5%AE%81%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E8%B5%B0%E5%BB%8A.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6EcS-VCybyqhRrX14vC6fJowo19t172nqzsAhzyUU8lT6-pvRMRljVuT7p_C6nGEnQe6ytmVRh1f23JgrLEqQQibLpTyRlY5T23F3TynOz2zzMZbEiWRmvuYyfG6WnoGFfzq-GDCV4yI/s1600/%E5%8D%97%E5%AE%81%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E8%B5%B0%E5%BB%8A.jpg" height="640" width="323" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中国高铁的前景多大?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我们先撇开中国与其他国家的前景不说,我们单单提及“</span><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">为了促进广西的经济发展,当地政府已经提及出构建南宁至新加坡经济走廊计划。从中国南宁到新加坡全场</span><span lang="EN-US">3700</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">公里,这条经济走廊将从中国横跨缅甸,寮国,泰国,马来西亚,一直到新加坡。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中国将在未来的日子改变多国之间的区域性发展,你看懂了吗?想要更深入的了解中国未来的发展,而这又将如何提振澳洲经济构成投资的前景?千万别错过我在<a href="https://www.facebook.com/gmefx/photos/a.298353206855645.79976.236492159708417/861103263913967/?type=1&theater" target="_blank">富力地产会议厅</a></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/gmefx/photos/a.298353206855645.79976.236492159708417/861103263913967/?type=1&theater" target="_blank">的分享会!</a></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Brought to u by :Kingsley Tan<br />
GME (</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">全马第一中文外汇教育机构</span><span lang="EN-US">)<br />
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-66261514222838011912014-09-21T11:09:00.000-07:002014-09-21T11:10:16.096-07:00惊喜与金喜!<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在过去的</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月中,金融市场迎来众多央行的决议,这为黄金的走势添加了更多不确定性因素,对投资者或许是喜或是忧!看你是属于什么类型的投资者?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">18</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号凌晨的美联储决议后令</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">黄金</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">重挫触及</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份以来最低</span><span lang="EN-US">1213.69<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">美元</span></span>/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">盎司,而银价则更是重挫</span><span lang="EN-US">3%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">至四年低点</span><span lang="EN-US">17.76</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">盎司。这结果无疑显示市场再度押注美国可能较预期提前升息的状况打压了黄金的对冲需求,由此引发的美元升值状况则使得以美元计价的</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">金价</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">进一步承压。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美联储决议释放的五大利好信号!</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在</span><span lang="EN-US">18</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号当天的美联储</span><span lang="EN-US">(FED)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">决议上,美联储符合预测削减</span><span lang="EN-US">QE 100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿美元至</span><span lang="EN-US">150</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月;下调</span><span lang="EN-US">2014-2016</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">GDP</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">及</span><span lang="EN-US">CPI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">预期。美联储</span><span lang="EN-US">(FED)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">主席耶伦则是在发布会上表示,美联储对升息的预期表示很可能会继续维持很长一段时间的低利率,也可能缩短,取决于美国经济。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">貌似继续打太极的耶伦论调和更看淡经济的预期,但却为何在美联储决议后,美元指数创</span><span lang="EN-US">14</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个月高位升至逾四年</span><span lang="EN-US">(2010</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月以来</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">新高</span><span lang="EN-US">84.81</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,黄金,白银更加逼近年初最低水平;美元兑日元则创近年来的新高?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第一点:<b>加息阵营扩容</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在</span><span lang="EN-US">17</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">名</span><span lang="EN-US">FOMC</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">成员中,持</span><span lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年内首度加息的人数由此前</span><span lang="EN-US">(6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月决议时</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的</span><span lang="EN-US">12</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">名增加至</span><span lang="EN-US">14</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">名。显示美联储对升息的预期更具信心。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第二点:</span><b> <span lang="EN-US">FOMC</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">上调未来两年利率预期中值</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年底的利率预测中位值为</span><span lang="EN-US">1.375%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,比</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份的预测值</span><span lang="EN-US">1.25%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">进一步上调,而</span><span lang="EN-US">2016</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年底的预期值更是达到了</span><span lang="EN-US">2.875%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,相比此前上修了</span><span lang="EN-US">37.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个基点,而新发布的</span><span lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年底预测值则在</span><span lang="EN-US">3.75%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。这无疑是美联储未来将走上快速政策紧缩通道的有力信号。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第三点:<b>利率预期明确化</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美联储把利率预测区间的精度上调到了</span><span lang="EN-US">12.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个基点,也就是一个百分点的八分之一,而不再是此前的</span><span lang="EN-US">25</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个基点。这凸显美联储可能会采取更为精细化的利率政策“微调”措施。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第四点:<b>“就业市场为王”</b></span><span style="font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">虽然</span><span lang="EN-US">FOMC</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">对美国中期内</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">增速及通胀率预期小幅下修,但也下修了</span><span lang="EN-US">2014-2016</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年的失业率预期区间上限,暗示美联储比</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份时稍稍更看好就业市场形势。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第五点:<b>美国脱颖而出</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">目前世界主要央行都处于低利率和宽松的情况下,美国与其他国家相比将更凸显其经济好转的预期。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在</span><span lang="EN-US">18</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号欧洲央行拍卖首轮</span><span lang="EN-US">TLTRO</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,但是以失败告终。首轮拍卖分配结果不及市场预期,以</span><span lang="EN-US">0.15%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">固定利率仅提供</span><span lang="EN-US">826</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">欧元</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">贷款,此前市场预期为</span><span lang="EN-US">1000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿至</span><span lang="EN-US">3000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿欧元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧洲央行下一轮四年期定向长期再融资操作</span><span lang="EN-US">(TLTRO)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">将在</span><span lang="EN-US">12</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份举行。但首次操作失败,令市场不看好这一操作能像德拉基预期的那样提振经济。市场臆测,央行可能不得不借助于更为激进的举措来提振欧元区经济</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">也即是欧版</span><span lang="EN-US">QE,</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">购买欧元区国家主权</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">债券</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">此外,日本央行的宽松货币政策和中国央行放水</span><span lang="EN-US">5000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿也提振了部分黄金买需。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日央行行长黑田东彦</span><span lang="EN-US">18</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号在证券协会年会中表示,日本央行将继续宽松直至通胀稳定在</span><span lang="EN-US">2%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">目标位,黑田东彦重申若有必要,日本央行将毫不犹豫地采取政策。此前的日本</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">央行利率</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">决议显示,央行决定继续维持</span><span lang="EN-US">0-0.1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">%的极低利率水平不变,并继续承诺以每年</span><span lang="EN-US">60-70</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万亿</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">日元</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的规模继续扩大基础货币。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">另一边,中国央行</span><span lang="EN-US">5000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿</span><span lang="EN-US">SLF</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">首批已经实施,</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">农行</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">交行已获得相关配额,期限为三个月,利率</span><span lang="EN-US">3.7%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,央行此举相当于降准约</span><span lang="EN-US">0.5%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,央行引导利率进一步下行的意图凸显。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧洲</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">央行</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">日本央行</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">中国央行</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">近期仍在宽松进程中,对比之下,美联储缩减</span><span lang="EN-US">QE</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">及加息预期阵营加大,令外界对美联储和美金更具信心!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“惊”喜?</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">对于很多短线的投资者来说或许体验到来自黄金的“惊”喜!在</span><span lang="EN-US">1230</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">看似要反弹却因为外界对美金的期望更大而重挫!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">截止</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号至</span><span lang="EN-US">16</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号当周</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/news/currency/USD.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">美元</span></a></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">持仓数据:美国商品期货交易委员会<span lang="EN-US">(CFTC)</span>发布的报告显示,投机者持有的美元净多头增加<span lang="EN-US">20868</span>手,为净多头<span lang="EN-US">53363</span>手。而投机者持有的黄金净多头则减少<span lang="EN-US">22954</span>手,为净多头<span lang="EN-US">72187</span>手。这凸显了投机者对美金看涨的意愿增加而对黄金看涨的意愿是有所减弱的。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">此外,美元指数的周图已突破了早前的高点,若下周能站稳</span><span lang="EN-US">84.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以上的话意味着美金持续看涨?那么黄金兑美金持续看跌?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0uJjbWiQNwzyE6kH3s8ZzEP_BkEjG10pdZWBCM9NdXflZTSnGQQGl2N_RRiVe66Rh6raaosDyV5zSdrDS2_A_IleCB_rK6o90BsJHaeTrE00QFTE8OXBfgCAJ9fLNfCqBLCGc64hbzV8/s1600/USD+index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0uJjbWiQNwzyE6kH3s8ZzEP_BkEjG10pdZWBCM9NdXflZTSnGQQGl2N_RRiVe66Rh6raaosDyV5zSdrDS2_A_IleCB_rK6o90BsJHaeTrE00QFTE8OXBfgCAJ9fLNfCqBLCGc64hbzV8/s1600/USD+index.jpg" height="282" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“金”喜?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">虽然黄金惨遭重挫,但是这不代表这是危机,而很可能是转机!三点“点实成金</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US">1)<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧洲央行拍卖首轮</span><span lang="EN-US">TLTRO</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,但是以失败告终,逼使欧洲央行最终可能采取量化宽松</span><span lang="EN-US">(QE)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">来打救经济!若欧洲央行最终采取欧洲版的</span><span lang="EN-US">QE</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,那么瑞士央行也将可能采取负利率政策释放更多的资金来捍卫经济!</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在市场不断释放资金而美联储还未确认升息的前提下可能提振黄金的购买需求来达到保值的目地。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US">2)<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">早前黄金一度探底的时候早已有很多文章发布有关黄金开采成本的报道。而瑞银集团</span><span lang="EN-US">(UBS)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">早前发布黄金开采成本为大约</span><span lang="EN-US">1200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。目前处于</span><span lang="EN-US">1213</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的价位,也换句话说已准备触底了?单凭这一点或许会在年底前将推升更多实体需求!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">黄金兑美金已跌破</span><span lang="EN-US">1230</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的支撑线往</span><span lang="EN-US">1200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">下探。距离</span><span lang="EN-US">1200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">只有</span><span lang="EN-US">14</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">块的距离,而距离去年尾的低点</span><span lang="EN-US">1178</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">也只有</span><span lang="EN-US">35</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">块的距离。这显示黄金将</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL4SbMJ30-15TQoNCxvcv_CzDJO8F8jxyYS0WynYWVD_JWIgiRryRzS5sgJuFhVenXpuXZNbarFciKHoXmmTR7hSPLDRGqtikj27BSbOHSIH2FhWTO5RvbOKkQm7upkSM8SNiVM0fC3ys/s1600/GOLD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL4SbMJ30-15TQoNCxvcv_CzDJO8F8jxyYS0WynYWVD_JWIgiRryRzS5sgJuFhVenXpuXZNbarFciKHoXmmTR7hSPLDRGqtikj27BSbOHSIH2FhWTO5RvbOKkQm7upkSM8SNiVM0fC3ys/s1600/GOLD.jpg" height="280" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: orange;"><span lang="EN-US">**</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以上的分析截止今天以前的数据和报告进行分析,并提供免费的个人观点进行参考。参考后请自身进行分析和判断,本人将不会附上任何投资上的亏损。</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-88978775541153337772014-09-17T08:01:00.002-07:002014-09-17T08:02:13.609-07:00918多的事,你不知道的事!<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">明天就是全球瞩目的</span><span lang="EN-US">918</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">了!到底为何</span><span lang="EN-US">918</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">呢?而这又和我们有何关系?</span><span lang="EN-US">
(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">放心,</span><span lang="EN-US">918</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">并非什么恐怖主义活动,而是金融一大盛事!</span><span lang="EN-US">)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">倘若近期有了解到金融和政治新闻的话,大家不难发现有两个重点新闻,就是美国的决议</span><span lang="EN-US">(FOMC)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">和苏格兰独立公投。这两大重点新闻将会主导本周众多货币对的走势!但这不会是全部,因为还有多的事,是你不知道的事!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">接下来我将会与大家深入分析英国就业数据和</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/News/CentralBank/BOE.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">英国央行</span></span></a></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">纪要对</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/news/currency/GBP.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">英镑</span></span></a></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的影响力?而</span><span lang="EN-US">FOMC</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">将如何主导趋势?欧洲央行进行的</span><span lang="EN-US">TLTRO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">拍卖计划如果告吹将如何影响欧洲央行的决策?瑞士央行需要看欧洲央行的脸色来捍卫经济?本周末的</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">国财长将在澳大利亚召开会议,这将有何影响?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">种种来自不同国家的重点基本面新闻将自下周起改变众多货币对的走势!让我</span><span lang="EN-US">Kingsley</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">为你解答吧!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">重点新闻</span><span lang="EN-US">(1)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">:英国就业数据和</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/News/CentralBank/BOE.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">英国央行</span></span></a></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">纪要对</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/news/currency/GBP.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">英镑</span></span></a></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的影响力?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在周四苏格兰独立公投之前,英国今天的就业数据和央行纪要率先揭开英镑的狂欢浪潮。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本次的央行纪要和早前不同的是本次有两位委员赞同加息。这显示</span><span lang="EN-US">MPC</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">委员已开始对前景感到乐观。此外,较好的就业报告和薪金增长预计将在第三季带来更好的效应用作打压物价持续走跌。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">基本上本次央行纪要对英国算是利好。但另一个潜在的危机在于最终苏格兰是否会独立?根据民调的结果为</span><span lang="EN-US">52%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">反对独立。这对英镑可说是双喜临门!英镑有望反弹早前的下跌潮。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">重点新闻</span><span lang="EN-US">(2)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">:苏格兰公投结果有何影响?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">明天市场将正式迎来苏格兰独立公投的活动。目前外媒统计的民调显示反对者为</span><span lang="EN-US">52%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,而支持者为</span><span lang="EN-US">48% </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">若苏格兰最终和民调的结果一样的话则代表苏格兰会继续留在英国当中。那么早前因为苏格兰要独立的新闻而打击英镑走跌的力量将撤离。换句话说,英镑很大可能将重返</span><span lang="EN-US">1.646</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">附近的价位。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">另一方面,倘若有任何意外发生的话,苏格兰决定独立,这将对英国有非常大的打击。短期内这将对英国经济有影响,而且加上乌俄政治危机令整体欧元区经济下滑而拖累英国的双重打击下,英镑兑美金则有机会跌至</span><span lang="EN-US">1.5845 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">重点新闻</span><span lang="EN-US">(3)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">:美联储决议</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">近期数次的</span><span lang="EN-US">FOMC</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">上,美联储主席耶和美联储众多的委员们都不比早前那么坚定美国将在今年内结束宽松</span><span lang="EN-US">(QE)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,并在明年年中前升息。早前耶伦已屡次表示美国升息的时间点并无“机械式”算法,这无疑令市场大失所望。本周,美联储其中一位委员表示美国可能将超低利率维持更长时间,这再次对</span><span lang="EN-US">18</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号凌晨</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">点的</span><span lang="EN-US">FOMC</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">再次添上不确定性。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">两大因素恐使美国再次不升息?</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美国非农就业报告:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">若长期有听我分享的你不难知道美国升息的关键在于美国的就业报告!但是在本月发布的</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份美国非农就业报告预期上升,但是结果出来不但没上升,甚至跌破</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万人!为</span><span lang="EN-US">14.2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万人。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">此外,近期连续几周的失业金领取人数不断的增加,这无疑对美国升息的预期再次添加不确定性。耶伦将在</span><span lang="EN-US">18</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号宣布有关消息,外界更对耶伦的发表更是期待。若美联储再次打太极的话,那么近期美金将走跌!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元指数被誉为美金的领先指标,若美金走强,那么美元指数一样走强,反之亦然。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">近期来到</span><span lang="EN-US">84.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的高点了!根据美元指数的周线图来做观察的话,美元指数目前遇到上升阻力在</span><span lang="EN-US">84.5 – 85 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">之间。根据技术面来看的话,美元指数看跌,那么也代表美金看跌?这将影响耶伦升息的预期?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimj4DgH5hIfmuQ7bFurvDqfPyPrHyaHEx3H7MB75dh05smKy2it7YdnClotYYsky4KQDRuhUNRTRjBdgE1wKkPayIhG3QTd-PAljCg4vi40VWrikrQ0oMb2GbuXfkVgE5vfr093zwX5oc/s1600/USD+index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimj4DgH5hIfmuQ7bFurvDqfPyPrHyaHEx3H7MB75dh05smKy2it7YdnClotYYsky4KQDRuhUNRTRjBdgE1wKkPayIhG3QTd-PAljCg4vi40VWrikrQ0oMb2GbuXfkVgE5vfr093zwX5oc/s1600/USD+index.jpg" height="384" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">重点新闻</span><span lang="EN-US">(4)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">:欧洲央行宣布</span><span lang="EN-US">TLTRO</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">拍卖结果</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">或许大家都晓得美国的</span><span lang="EN-US">FOMC</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">议会和苏格兰的公投,但是大家可能不晓得欧洲央行将拍卖长期再融资工具</span><span lang="EN-US">(TLTRO)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">项目。您又或许知道欧洲央行将进行长期再融资工具</span><span lang="EN-US">(TLTRO)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的拍卖,但是你可能不知道</span><span lang="EN-US">FOMC</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">对其的影响!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">作为欧洲央行刺激经济和抑制通缩的“组合拳”之一,这一项目被寄予厚望。欧洲央行的长期再融资政策能确保银行有能力购买欧元区源源不断的国债。同时,长期再融资政策降低了欧元区的利率,提高了银行业利润率,使较弱的金融机构有能力提高准备金。但调查显示,该项目规模远不及该行行长德拉基此前所称的</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万亿</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">欧元</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,或令其扩充欧洲央行资产规模</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万亿欧元的目标落空。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">TLTRO</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">面对种种危机?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">TLTRO</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">拍卖比美国的</span><span lang="EN-US">FOMC</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">会议晚一天。如果</span><span lang="EN-US">FOMC</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">立场强硬或是释放升息的预期的话,市场无疑是美金更受青睐。这对欧洲央行的</span><span lang="EN-US">TLTRO</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">认购率可能带来威胁,则更可能令欧元承压加重。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">如果定向长期再融资操作</span><span lang="EN-US">(TLTRO)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">拍卖不成功,则欧元可望开始下跌,因为可能逼使欧洲央行实行更大规模的宽松来解决经济低迷的前景。倘若美国无法满足市场的期望的话,这可能会利好欧洲央行拍卖</span><span lang="EN-US">TLTRO</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,从而利好欧元兑美金。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所以,美联储议会的结果很可能直接影响到</span><span lang="EN-US">TLTRO</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的拍卖结果,从而可能导致欧洲央行开启印钞机!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">重点新闻</span><span lang="EN-US">(5)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">:瑞士央行将出手?</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“</span><span lang="EN-US">9.18</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">”超级星期四的另一出大戏将是瑞士</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">央行利率</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">决议。目前,市场开始密切关注瑞士央行本次利率决议是否会着手干预欧元兑</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/news/currency/CHF.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">瑞郎</span></span></a>1.20<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">汇率</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">下限。而瑞士央行可能采取的举措便是:下调银行超额储备金利率至负值。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在此之前,上周有关瑞士央行本周四将采取行动的预期高涨。通缩以及瑞士经济二季度陷入停滞的信号,可能令瑞士央行本周很难继续袖手旁观。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">瑞士央行</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号向媒体透露的简短声明中也指出,若有必要,将会采取进一步措施来坚守瑞郎汇价上限。瑞士央行行长乔丹</span><span lang="EN-US">(Thomas Jordan)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">早前在接受采访时,也曾数次提及负利率来捍卫瑞士经济。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不过瑞士央行最终是否会采取行动取决于两点:</span><span lang="EN-US">1,</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最终欧洲央行拍卖的结果如果?会开启印钞机?</span><span lang="EN-US"> 2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,取决于欧元兑法郎的</span><span lang="EN-US">1.2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">下限</span> <span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。若最终欧元兑瑞朗的汇价触及到</span><span lang="EN-US">1.2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">之下,这将逼使瑞士央行实行负利率!而瑞士实行负利率的力量将大过欧洲,因为其央行的储备金更多。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-844670268128876812014-09-01T09:09:00.000-07:002014-09-01T19:10:09.488-07:00黄金反弹1320的四大关键!<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 今年</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月初黄金价格到达</span><span lang="EN-US">1343</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">盎司的高点以来失去了上行动能,上周四还触及了</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个月低点</span><span lang="EN-US">1272</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一线,这令黄金多头们很不好受,但是按传统经验来看黄金价格可能在即将到来的</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月迎来“出头天”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> 黄金突围的四大关键!</span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">传统经验统计</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">金融资讯网站</span><span lang="EN-US">CHART
OF THE DAY</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">统计的数据表明,黄金价格在过去</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年的每一个</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份里,平均上涨</span><span lang="EN-US">3%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,次高月份为</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月,平均上涨</span><span lang="EN-US">1.8%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份推升黄金的主要力量来自于印度进入节庆季(</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月末至</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月)以及随后到来的结婚季的实物买需。本周印度传统节日“排灯节”</span><span lang="EN-US">(Diwali)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">到来前,印度黄金销量上升。印度的黄金溢价已从</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份的零升至每盎司</span><span lang="EN-US">10~13</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元,表明这一全球第二大黄金消费国的需求正在回升</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">印度和中国加起来占全球黄金销量的约</span><span lang="EN-US">70%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,且黄金销量在接近年末之际通常会升至高位,除了印度节日和婚季意外,中国农历新年前消费者也会大量购买黄金。根据华人传统,每逢中国农历新年时,黄金消费也将提升,这有望在实体需求上得到支持。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">非农就业报告</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美国劳工部</span><span lang="EN-US">(Labor Department)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">将在来临的星期五发布美国</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月季调后非农就业人口和同期失业率数据。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">根据市场目前普遍预计,美国</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月非农就业人口增幅会略微反弹至</span><span lang="EN-US">21.0</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万</span><span lang="EN-US">(7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月增加</span><span lang="EN-US">20.9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">——有望连续第七个月超过</span><span lang="EN-US">20.0</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万,同期失业率则会下降至</span><span lang="EN-US">6.1%(7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月反弹至</span><span lang="EN-US">6.2%)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。这将意味着,美国制造业和服务业双双稳步扩张,且其汽车产业欣欣向荣。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">目前美国的已连续</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个月超过</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万人就业,若持续这个势头的话将可能令市场再次对升息有所期待,继续打压黄金的多头</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">升势</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。据美国商品期货交易委员会</span><span lang="EN-US">(CFTC)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">上周五公布的数据,最近一周汇市投机客增持美元多头仓位,为连续两周增持,使美元净多仓来到逾两年最高水准。(美元净多仓增至</span><span lang="EN-US">329.2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿美元)</span>
<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。相对的,若美国的就业人数不及</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万人的话,那么黄金将可能在本周急涨</span><span lang="EN-US">!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">目前的黄金天图走势来看,黄金兑美金已处于三角区中的尾端。上周在今年</span><span lang="EN-US">1276</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的支持附近挑战几次都无法跌破而反弹。虽然国际危机不断传出,黄金还是无法站稳</span><span lang="EN-US">1300</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的价位,主要因为外界不断的增持美金。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本周黄金是否能突破</span><span lang="EN-US">1300</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">或是跌破三角区主要依赖本周的非农的升息的预期。若突破</span><span lang="EN-US">1315</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">则有机会看涨至</span><span lang="EN-US">1345</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">附近。倘若美国升息预期加温令黄金兑美金跌破</span><span lang="EN-US">1276</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">则是看跌至</span><span lang="EN-US">1240 & 1200 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpzmWp-DkympEIQaL_By0xFBo7rCHoCaYENrt3Wx5mBcsXx8LzVi_LH7bqKG_l4A3emsLmRwOhqBbVqaJXDQeRQvHz4ykScrHm_HrEtBWbORoFoqwgJ8_N9N0HdNrlGrkJNR2WppzA9vM/s1600/GOLD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpzmWp-DkympEIQaL_By0xFBo7rCHoCaYENrt3Wx5mBcsXx8LzVi_LH7bqKG_l4A3emsLmRwOhqBbVqaJXDQeRQvHz4ykScrHm_HrEtBWbORoFoqwgJ8_N9N0HdNrlGrkJNR2WppzA9vM/s1600/GOLD.jpg" height="324" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">国际危机</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">由于俄罗斯叛军不断流入乌克兰边界消息不断流出,这也威胁了乌克兰人民的安危。欧盟主席巴罗佐在</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 11pt;">欧盟峰会前</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">已经对国际表示将对俄罗斯采取更严峻的制裁行动。若俄罗斯不顾一切的反制裁行动对乌克兰报复的话,这将可能再次推高黄金的避险情绪。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">此外,美国早前发布了一段空袭伊拉克军车企图进入管辖区的视频;伊拉克圣战组织</span><span lang="EN-US">(ISIS)19</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号发布了一份视频,声称已将美国战地摄影鸡舍斩首以报复美国对该组织的空袭。美国政府</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号证实了该视频的属实后,美国总统奥巴马表示:“伊斯兰激进分子的野蛮暴行令全世界感到震惊。</span><span lang="EN-US">ISIS</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">组织就像人类社会的毒瘤,必须铲除,并誓言美国将采取行动保卫美国人民。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美国对</span><span lang="EN-US">ISIS</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的决心其实更具外界担忧的,因为美国财政上限不久前才通过紧急法案提高来维持美国经济复苏的步伐,但是若美国持续对</span><span lang="EN-US">ISIS</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">展开对抗的话,这可能再次对美国财政添加不确定性。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 虽说过往的经验告诉我们,每逢边缘危机爆发之际将提振避险需求,但是近几个月所传出的危机有如“狼来了的故事班,边缘危机来了又走,令黄金对此敏感度相对比以前较低了。</span></div>
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<b> 总结以上四个论点,黄金短期走强至1320的可能性是有的,而且需配合美国的就业报告的疲软下方能达到,甚至突破!倘若美国就业报告强劲,推升升息的预期的话,黄金可能节节败退,失守1276的关键支撑!哪怕是佳节来临提振实体需求的可能性。</b><br />
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<b> 九月份最终黄金能否得到亮眼的成绩,第一关就让我们等待本周五的非农就业报告吧!</b><br />
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<span lang="EN-US">Brought to u by :Kingsley Tan<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">GME (</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">全马第一中文外汇教育机构</span><span lang="EN-US">)<br />
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</span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: orange; font-size: 10.0pt;">**</span></b><b><span style="color: orange; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">以上的分析截止今天以前的数据和报告进行分析,并提供免费的个人观点进行参考。参考后请自身进行分析和判断,本人将不会附上任何投资上的亏损。</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-6726935809623567222014-08-31T05:26:00.003-07:002014-09-01T09:10:56.136-07:00欧元兑法郎将触及底线,瑞士央行恐将出手干预?<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">受持续的俄罗斯与乌克兰的政治危机推动下,传统避险货币瑞士法郎受到资金涌入下走强,加上欧洲央行受到产能减少和通缩的压力下可能推出宽松政策,从而欧元兑瑞郎逐步逼近瑞士央行</span><span lang="EN-US">(SNB)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">设定的</span><span lang="EN-US">1.20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">汇率下限。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjUd-2cERabf6cyW1rDxig2uDzTzzUSuNVgevgPh9fkKaKyMdeQVwMvSyV-Zwaw1R8Qel9ZQS_Z88OpIG_CQej0YFwx17mtAtKbN_PpOo7iIO3QrA-1WAItCY3jGZh8Pcb4fV-lxk3EUU/s1600/EURCHF.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjUd-2cERabf6cyW1rDxig2uDzTzzUSuNVgevgPh9fkKaKyMdeQVwMvSyV-Zwaw1R8Qel9ZQS_Z88OpIG_CQej0YFwx17mtAtKbN_PpOo7iIO3QrA-1WAItCY3jGZh8Pcb4fV-lxk3EUU/s1600/EURCHF.jpg" height="292" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;"><br />【欧元兑法郎,天图】</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧元</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">瑞郎自上周闭市报</span><span lang="EN-US">1.20591</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,创下</span><span lang="EN-US">2012</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">12</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日以来新低,距离瑞士央行在</span><span lang="EN-US">2011</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年时设定的</span><span lang="EN-US">1.20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">汇率下限仅一步之遥。瑞士央行承诺一旦汇价落至此区域将出手干预以防止瑞郎进一步升值。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">早在两个月前,欧洲央行实行破天荒的负利率政策时,瑞士央行早已再次表态其央行将可能在欧元兑法郎处于</span><span lang="EN-US">1.20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">汇率下限时,实行汇率干预来保卫瑞士的出口。时隔两个月后,欧元兑法郎再次挑战</span><span lang="EN-US">1.20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的关口,最终瑞士央行是否会入场干预就让我们密切留意来临星期四晚的欧洲央行利率决议以及超级玛丽欧的表态吧!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">由于欧元区整体的成长率和通胀再次下降,不得不令外界猜疑欧洲央行是否会加重干预措施来阻止进一步的萎缩。若本月份欧洲央行加重干预,而且欧元对瑞朗的汇率跌破或是触及</span><span lang="EN-US">1.20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的汇价,那么瑞士央行极大可能会在</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">18</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">日的政策会议上采取干预措施来提高通胀和保持良好的出口。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21pt;"><br />Brought to u by :Kingsley Tan</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21pt;">GME (</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21pt;">全马第一中文外汇教育机构</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21pt;">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21pt;">如果要快速致富,请不要找我们!</span><br />
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</span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: orange; font-size: 10.0pt;">**</span></b><b><span style="color: orange; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">以上的分析截止今天以前的数据和报告进行分析,并提供免费的个人观点进行参考。参考后请自身进行分析和判断,本人将不会附上任何投资上的亏损。</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-68676954658928480472014-08-28T18:35:00.001-07:002014-08-28T18:36:13.841-07:00葡萄酒跻身新西兰前五大出口商品之列<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">新西兰是海洋性气候,是葡萄生长与酿制独特顶级葡萄酒理想的地点。有超过</span><span lang="EN-US">640</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">家的葡萄酒厂注册并生产,拥有超过</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿公顷的葡萄酒庄园。高品质及快速发展的步伐,已经让新西兰葡萄酒产业被世界主要葡萄酒市场高度认可。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">新西兰中文网在</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">25</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日的报道中获悉,新西兰葡萄种植协会(</span><span lang="EN-US">New Zealand Winegrowers</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)在年度报告显示,葡萄酒已经成为新西兰的主要出口商品之一。截止今年</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月,新西兰葡萄酒年出口额增长</span><span lang="EN-US">10%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,出口总值为</span><span lang="EN-US">13.3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿纽币,创历史新高。不过,新西兰葡萄酒在国内市场的销量却出现了下降。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">据了解,葡萄酒赚取的外汇已经超过了黄油、</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">fin-fish</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">和猕猴桃,</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">2014</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年,新西兰葡萄酒出口总额很可能达到</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">15</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿纽币左右;而预计在这一个十年期末,新西兰葡萄酒的出口总额有望增至</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">20</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿纽币,至此,葡萄酒也将</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">跻身</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">”</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">新西兰五大贸易商品之列。</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">新西兰葡萄种植协会主席</span><span lang="EN-US">Steve
Green</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">表示,所有葡萄种植区都出现了</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">双速(</span><span lang="EN-US">two-speed</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的生长期,而良好的天气状况也促进了葡萄的口味。鉴于此,新西兰未来一年的葡萄酒出口量势必会增长不少。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">80%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以上的新西兰葡萄种植协会会员们都表示,由于过去一年的葡萄园和基础设施建设发展良好,他们对本行业的前景充满了信心。在经历了</span><span lang="EN-US">2012</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年的限量供应后,新西兰葡萄酒行业的</span><span lang="EN-US">2013</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年成绩堪称辉煌</span><span lang="EN-US">——</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">葡萄酒出口总量达</span><span lang="EN-US">1.9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿升,平均价格为</span><span lang="EN-US">7.11</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">纽币</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">升;瓶装葡萄酒价格为</span><span lang="EN-US">8.32</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">纽币</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">升。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">出口市场方面,澳大利亚仍是新西兰葡萄酒的最大进口国,约为</span><span lang="EN-US">5300</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万升,占总量的</span><span lang="EN-US">28%</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">左右;北美和欧洲北部是增长速度最快的地区,美国进口增长</span><span lang="EN-US">16%</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,荷兰和德国的进口量分别增长</span><span lang="EN-US">33%</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">和</span><span lang="EN-US">52%</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span></b><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-weight: normal; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不过</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,和出口规模相比,新西兰葡萄酒的国内销售却是完全另外一种景象</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">——</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">虽然市场总量仍徘徊在</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">9000</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万升左右,但是,销量却下降了</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">6%</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">;因此,新西兰葡萄酒的市场导向将继续以海外市场为主。</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Steve Green</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">表示,新西兰</span><span lang="EN-US">sauvignon
blanc</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">是全球餐厅和零售市场的最爱,总需求量</span><span lang="EN-US">31</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万升,占</span><span lang="EN-US">2014</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年总产量的</span><span lang="EN-US">72%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">;由于南岛的丰收,</span><span lang="EN-US">pinot noir</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">产量增长了</span><span lang="EN-US">15%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,达</span><span lang="EN-US">36,500</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">升;</span><span lang="EN-US">Chardonnay</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、</span><span lang="EN-US">pinot gris</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">和</span><span lang="EN-US">merlot</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的产量也都增长了</span><span lang="EN-US">7%-8%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">左右,这些都得益于市场的强劲需求。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 雨果网了解到,新西兰虽然是澳大利亚的邻居,但是由于受到强烈的海洋性气候影响,整体来看新西兰要比澳大利亚凉爽很多。基本上来讲,无论是红的还是白的,新西兰的葡萄酒酸性属于中等。如果让你猜测全世界出口单瓶均价最高的国家,也许你会猜美国或是法国,但是从国家上来讲,新西兰实际上以超过</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美金</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">升的价格高居出口均价榜榜首。这个傲视群雄的价格也说明新西兰是主打高质量精品酒,而非高产量的低价酒。很多时候一个产业的兴衰都与国家政策有很大关系,新西兰也不例外,在上个世纪</span><span lang="EN-US">60</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年代以前,新西兰的酒吧只能开到晚上六点钟,周日更是全天关门,而餐厅也不让自带葡萄酒,直到</span><span lang="EN-US">60</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年代末这条法令才被取消,葡萄酒行业也正是踏上复兴之路。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-4402704505362873182014-08-24T08:14:00.001-07:002014-08-24T08:14:45.355-07:00杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">结束了</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天的杰克逊霍尔全球</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/News/CentralBank/PBC.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">央行</span></a></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年会,当然备受全世界瞩目的肯定是欧美两大央行行长对该国经济的发表了。让我们一同去了解两大行长对经济前景的预期和可能性的措施。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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#</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美联储行长,耶伦</span><span lang="EN-US">#<br />
<a href="http://www.fx678.com/News/CentralBank/FED.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span lang="EN-US">美联储</span></span></a>(Fed)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">主席耶伦</span><span lang="EN-US">(Janet Yellen)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在杰克逊霍尔全球</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">央行</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年会上表示:<b>“美国劳动力市场仍受到经济大衰退的影响,美联储应当谨慎决定加息时间”</b></span><b><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">耶伦表示:“没有适合当前美国就业市场状况的简单”政策良方;仍不清楚就业市场目前还有多大规模的闲置劳动力,多快能消失。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">耶伦称,在通胀升向</span><span lang="EN-US">2%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">目标的过程中,过快收紧政策可能会阻碍就业市场全面复苏。她指出,美联储的关注点转向决定怎样的就业市场状况将会导致政策宽松度降低。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">她说,需要就政策将对就业市场造成的周期性和结构性影响作出“艰难的判断”。她敦促在判断近期公布的薪资数据显示就业市场状况较失业率数据反映的状况疲弱时谨慎行事。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">耶伦认为,可以合理地预期就业需求进一步增加将吸引相当大比例的失去信心的工人重新回到劳动大军。她还称,总需求疲软导致离职与招聘承压;几乎没有证据显示工资或薪酬增长普遍加速。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">作者总结:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美联储近期发表较为保守且似乎不太看好美国近期的复苏。本次的杰克逊霍尔全球</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/News/CentralBank/PBC.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">央行</span></a></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年会上,耶伦早前的</span><span lang="EN-US">FOMC</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">议会上则是表示“美国升息的时间点并无机械式的算法”,这次更是重申</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美联储应当谨慎决定加息的时间点</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">总结两次耶伦对外的表态是较为看衰目前美国经济复苏的前景,这也代表着美国升息的预期被打消了吗?答案是不一定!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">若美国依然能在今年尾前结束所有的宽松规模的话,希望依然存在。而且美国下半年前景看好!主要原因有三:</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)制造业复苏?</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美国</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">Markit</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">制造业</span><span lang="EN-US">PMI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">初值升至</span><span lang="EN-US">58</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,创</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月来最高水平,因为生产、订单和就业率均有所回升。</span><span lang="EN-US">PMI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">读数高于</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,表明制造业扩张,低于</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,则表明制造业萎缩。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月费城联储制造业指数攀升至</span><span lang="EN-US">28</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,创</span><span lang="EN-US">2011</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月以来高位,同时也是过去</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年来第二高水平。此数据显示美国的制造业正在扩张!</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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(2) </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">全美地产经纪商协会</span><span lang="EN-US">(NAR)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">于</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">21</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日公布的数据显示,美国</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月成屋销售总数年化意外增加至</span><span lang="EN-US">515</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万户,创</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个月</span><span lang="EN-US">(2013</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份以来</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">新高。另外几份报告数据显示,衡量美国工厂活动的一项指标</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月攀升至逾四年最高水平,</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月领先指标跳升,上周领取失业救济金的人数低于预期。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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(3) </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">制造业增长</span><span lang="EN-US">=</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">就业市场增长?</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">裁员减少是</span><span lang="EN-US">2014</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年下半年美国经济前景光明的原因之一。周四</span><span lang="EN-US">(8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">21</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">公布的</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月谘商会领先指标</span><span lang="EN-US">(The Conference Board</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">’</span><span lang="EN-US">s index)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">上升</span><span lang="EN-US">0.9%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,创四个月来最大涨幅,</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月上升</span><span lang="EN-US">0.6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。该指标用于衡量未来三至六个月的前景。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美国劳工部</span><span lang="EN-US">(Labor Department)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">数据显示,截止</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">16</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日当周,美国初请失业救济金人数下跌</span><span lang="EN-US">1.4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万至</span><span lang="EN-US">29.8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万人。这份报告的时间恰逢政府对雇主进行调查时期,政府据此计算月度就业人数增长。美国</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月非农就业报告将于</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日发布。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">#</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧洲央行行长,玛丽欧</span><span lang="EN-US">#<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧洲</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/News/CentralBank/PBC.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">央行</span></a></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">行长德拉基</span><span lang="EN-US">(Mario Draghi)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在杰克逊霍尔举行的全球央行年会上暗示,<b>欧洲央行将转变以紧缩政策为主的政策思路。目前</b></span><b><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/news/currency/EUR.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">欧元</span></a></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">正面临经济停滞、物价疲软和失业率高企的困局,这使得央行在政策方面必须有一定的灵活变通措施来加以应对。</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">德拉基在会议上称,欧洲央行官员和政治家在刺激需求和减少失业方面可以发挥各自的作用。他表示,<b>如有必要,欧洲央行愿意采取更多刺激措施,以防止低通胀率持久化,陷入类似当年日本的“通缩陷井”。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">数天前,欧元区的一份报告显示,该地区第二季度经济增长出现停滞,这引发了外界对于经济体量约</span><span lang="EN-US">13.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万亿</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/news/currency/USD.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">美元</span></a></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的欧元区正陷于持续的经济停滞和高失业率泥潭的担忧。而德拉基称,欧元区本地生产总值</span><span lang="EN-US">(<a href="http://www.fx678.com/indexchart/index.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">GDP</span></a>)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">数据证实,欧元区的经济复苏总体而言都较疲软,即使在没有经济困境的国家,工资增长也较乏力,这表明需求疲软。而且第二季度经济成长主要受惠于欧元区的小国,反而德国,法国和意大利则是走软!这无疑另外界更具担忧。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">截止</span><span lang="EN-US">22</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号当周美国商品期货交易委员会</span><span lang="EN-US">(CFTC)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">发布的</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/news/currency/EUR.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">欧元</span></a></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">持仓数据报告显示,投机者持有的欧元净空头增加</span><span lang="EN-US">12808</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">手,为净空头</span><span lang="EN-US">138825</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">手,显示投机者对欧元继续看空的意愿有所增强。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">此外,德拉基进一步指出,<b>如果在实施</b></span><b><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/News/currency/EUR.html" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">货币</span></a></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">政策的同时,财政政策能起到更大的作用,将会对整体政策立场产生积极影响</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。他表示,在考虑欧洲具体的初始状况和法律限制的情况下,在这方面有可以作为的空间。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">尽管德拉基的随表示有货币政策和财政政策双管齐下的预期,但是这不代表他将接受利用大规模赤字开支来刺激欧元区经济的做法。因为早前来自德国方面的压力,欧洲央行官员曾强调:</span>
<span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">各个欧元区成员国政府即使在经济疲软时期,也需削减赤字和实施经济改革。</span><span lang="EN-US">”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">此时的欧洲经济无疑另外界担忧是否欧洲经济会陷入泥沼?走入</span><span lang="EN-US">15</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年前的日本?近期的英国也担忧被拖累希望明年在卡梅伦连任后能推出欧盟。在种种的压力下,德拉基将如何确保欧洲的经济不再衰退呢?尽情留意我</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份</span><span lang="EN-US">G-media</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的财经专栏!</span><span lang="EN-US">#</span><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧洲将重蹈覆辙日本还是仿效日本?</span><span lang="EN-US">#</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-45035024633795758182014-08-22T00:21:00.002-07:002014-08-22T00:23:56.024-07:00若英国退出欧盟,华尔街投行恐撤离伦敦!<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span lang="EN-US">[ “‘</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">退欧</span><span lang="EN-US">’</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">确实将增强英国对本国法规的自主权,但英国将因此失去自己的影响力以及在欧洲市场的种种特权</span><span lang="EN-US">” ]<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">虽然对于英国是否会退出欧盟的争论由来已久,但向来</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">未雨绸缪</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的华尔街投行,将人们的焦点再次拉回到这个话题上。因担忧英国可能将退出欧盟,华尔街各大金融机构正在制定应对计划,拟将部分金融业务从伦敦迁至爱尔兰。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 爱尔兰或取代伦敦</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">18</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日,据外媒报道,来自花旗集团(</span><span lang="EN-US">Citigroup Inc.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)、摩根士丹利(</span><span lang="EN-US">Morgan Stanley</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)和美国银行(</span><span lang="EN-US">BOA</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)的内部人士均在近期向媒体透露,如果未来公司旗下的欧洲公司需要迁出英国,爱尔兰将是最佳的选择。据悉,其中一家投行已经计划将部分业务转到爱尔兰。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">虽然知情人士透露</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">转移业务</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的计划尚处于初级阶段,但</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">嗅觉</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">十分灵敏的华尔街投行做出的判断,足够引起市场的重视。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">目前大多数美国与亚洲银行选择伦敦作为其发展欧洲业务的总部,一方面因为伦敦是全球金融中心之一,另一方面因为只要在英国落户,这些金融机构可以同时得到在欧盟</span><span lang="EN-US">28</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个成员国推出金融服务的护照。而如果英国退出欧盟,英国政府将不具备发放该护照的权力。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">有望替代英国成为新的欧洲金融中心的爱尔兰,对于华尔街投行具有足够的吸引力,除该国是欧元区成员国这一必备条件外,爱尔兰还具备企业税率低、以英语作为母语以及同英国一样的英美法律体系。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">伦敦可能将不再是全球离岸金融中心,那意味着需要打造一个欧洲新的大型在岸金融中心,法兰克福或者都柏林显然也将是候选者。</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">思特灵律师事务所</span><span lang="EN-US">(Shearman & Sterling)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的合伙人巴尼</span><span lang="EN-US">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">雷诺兹(</span><span lang="EN-US">Barney
Reynolds</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)说道。他预计,虽然美国的银行将交易室等基础设施移出伦敦将面临成本高、过程复杂等问题,但并不代表没有这种可能。英国退出欧盟将成为最可能的导火索。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">华尔街投行的举动无疑让素有</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">英国华尔街</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">之称的伦敦金融城压力倍增,作为全球金融中心之一,金融城创造的价值约占英国经济总量的十分之一。伦敦金融城政府</span><span lang="EN-US">(TheCityUK)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">提供的数据显示,目前有</span><span lang="EN-US">250</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">多家国外银行在英国开展业务,</span><span lang="EN-US">2013</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年英国的金融服务贸易顺差额达</span><span lang="EN-US">710</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿美元,约相当于英国与其他欧盟国家贸易额的三分之一。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧洲银行业联盟</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">成导火索</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">引发华尔街投行对于英国退出欧盟的担忧加剧直接原因来自于即将成立的</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧洲银行业联盟</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">自欧债危机爆发后,欧洲银行业遭到重创,国际地位大不如前。为了重振欧洲银行业,欧洲央行一直在积极筹备</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧洲银行业联盟</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的成立。但这一旨在促进欧盟国家间</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">互利互助</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的举措并没有得到在欧元区经济处于领先地位的英国、德国等的支持。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今年</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月,欧洲议会(</span><span lang="EN-US">European
Parliament</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)投票通过银行业单一清算机制</span><span lang="EN-US">(SRM)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,这代表着朝</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧洲银行业联盟</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的建立又迈进了一大步。</span><span lang="EN-US"> SRM</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">旨在为欧盟破产银行成立总额达</span><span lang="EN-US">550</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿欧元的破产清算基金,从而避免纳税人为银行倒闭埋单。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">而就在这一方案通过几个小时后,英国方面公开表明了自己的</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">态度</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。欧洲议会国家谈判代表、英国保守党议员唯琪</span><span lang="EN-US">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">福特称:</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">英国将不会为单一清算机制掏腰包或为欧元区成员今日的决定带来的后果埋单。</span><span lang="EN-US">”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">英国担心</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧洲银行业联盟</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的成立会使自己在欧洲金融监管中被边缘化,伦敦的国际金融中心地位会受到动摇。在英国看来,联盟的成立可能会损害英国及其他非欧元区或非欧盟成员国的利益,妨碍资本和服务的自由流动。显然,英国站在了</span><span lang="EN-US">18</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个支持建立</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧洲银行业联盟</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的国家队列之外,华尔街投行因此预测英国这一举动会加快其脱离欧盟的速度。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">退欧</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">之争</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">关于英国</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">退欧</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的利弊之争从未停息,英国首相卡梅伦</span><span lang="EN-US">(David Cameron)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">此前曾承诺,如果他领导的保守党在</span><span lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年获得连任,将重新协商英国在欧盟的条件,并在</span><span lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年底前举行公投以决定是否继续留在欧盟。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 今年</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月初时,卡梅伦因反对新一任的欧盟委员会主席人选,或将提前举行</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">退欧</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">公投。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">卡梅伦表示,如果欧洲各国领袖选择容克</span><span lang="EN-US">(Jean-Claude
Juncker)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">担任欧盟委员会主席,他将无法保证英国会继续作为成员国留在欧盟内。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">业内人士指出,卡梅伦真正的担忧是若多数欧洲议会议员投票支持容克,则基于其既有政策立场,英国政府的现行涉欧政策将遭到更大程度的挑战。卡梅伦认为,容克过度倾向联邦主义,而这将严重损害欧盟各成员国的主权独立性,且可能毁掉英国方面在改革其与欧盟之间关系上的期望。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">而对于退出欧盟,英国国内也不乏反对之声。经济学家马丁</span><span lang="EN-US">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">沃尔夫(</span><span lang="EN-US">Martin Wolf</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)曾发表评论文章称,尽管英国已经一只脚踏出了欧盟,但对于已不再是全球性强国的英国来说,</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">留欧</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">远好于</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">退欧</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 他指出,</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">退欧</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">确实将增强英国对本国法规的自主权,但英国将因此失去自己的影响力以及在欧洲市场的种种特权。</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">英国民众可能不喜欢英国目前的身份,但它基本上是所有选择里最好的一种。</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">沃尔夫说道。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-31083310763423042572014-08-19T22:20:00.001-07:002014-08-19T22:20:40.812-07:00日本欲借奥运东风建赌场 吸引中国游客等来日消费<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"> 据日本共同社</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">16</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">日报道,日本私营铁路公司京滨急行电铁</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">(</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">简称京急电铁</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">)</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">当日正式启动项目,计划在日本兴建赌场。安倍政权希望借</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">2020</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">东京奥运的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">东风</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">,靠赌场业吸引包括中国游客在内的更多外国游客来日消费。但日本国内有舆论担忧这一举动可能带来负面效应,亚洲其他开放赌博业的国家也密切关注日本是否会带来</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">更激烈竞争</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">16</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">日,日本京急电铁宣布建立核心业务小组,建设以赌场为中心的大型综合性度假村</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">(IntergratedResort</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">,简称</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">IR)</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">,预计总投资规模</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">5000</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">亿</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">-6000</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">亿日元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">(100</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">日元约合人民币</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">6</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">元</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">)</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">。京急电铁称</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">将以相关法案通过为前提</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">,争取在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">2020</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">年东京奥运会前建成这一项目。该大型综合度假村除赌场外,还将建设国际会议中心、豪华酒店、商场等设施。目前,东京港台场与横滨港山下码头是主要的两个候选建设地,其中横滨方面的项目组已经于今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">4</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">月成立。如果该项目得以实施,将是日本首次在国内兴建赌场。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"> 根据日本现行法律,国内尚不能建设赌场,但赌博类行业如弹子房等早已遍布全国,为日本政府带来丰富经济收益。安倍上台后将引入赌场度假村作为拉动经济的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">杀手锏</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">之一。今年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">5</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">月,安倍在访问新加坡时前往当地著名的赌场度假村考察,并称发展赌场业</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">是日本经济成长战略最重要的关键点之一</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">。日本政府已在首相官邸设立专门研究小组,结合</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">2020</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">年东京奥运吸引</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">2000</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">万外国旅行者的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">宏大目标</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">以赌场业拯救经济</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">。日本业界表示,日本未来建成的赌场</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">将以亚洲游客,特别是中国人与韩国人</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"> 《日本经济新闻》称,赌场业带来巨额旅游收入,利润巨大,在增加政府税收的同时还能有效创造就业。此前根据日本三菱研究所估算,如果在成田机场附近开设赌场,每年至少吸引</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">250</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">万游客,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">5</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">年内能带来</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">1</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">万亿日元的收入。看到日本对赌场逐渐</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">门户开放</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">,海外的赌场业集团也跃跃欲试,企图借日本这一</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">成熟的消费市场</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">分一杯羹。世界著名赌场企业拉斯韦加斯金沙集团已宣布将开设日本分公司,计划在日投资</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">1</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">万亿日元,米高梅等也表示计划投资日本,乃至在日本股市上市。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"> 不过,虽然安倍内阁对于设置赌场一事非常热心,但日本民众的反对之声非常强烈。一位</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">60</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">多岁的日本老人对《环球时报》记者表示,反对在日本设立赌场,那样会导致日本社会秩序恶化,也会引发赌博上瘾、黑社会介入、赌场洗钱等问题。而日本一些民间社会团体也表示反对,称引入赌场将带来大量的外国人,以及赌博游乐的风气,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">将严重影响日本的社会秩序</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">,赌场所在地可能成为日本新的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">犯罪滋生的巢穴</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">。英国《金融时报》称,日本社会兼具开放与保守的一面,大规模的引入赌场将</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">最大限度地激发日本人喜忧参半的情绪</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">,日本渴望从赌博业中获益,但也担心这种文化</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">会毁了这个国家</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"> 目前,在亚洲有十几个国家和地区允许开办赌场,或正在准备对赌场</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">“</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">开禁</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">”</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">。除了中国澳门、新加坡、马来西亚、泰国、韩国等发达经济体已设立赌场之外,如菲律宾、柬埔寨、印度等经济相对落后国也已启动赌场建设计划,或积极谋求引入赌场。在过去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">4-5</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">年,亚洲赌场业年均经济规模以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">40%</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">以上的速度增长。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">如果要快速致富,请不要找我们!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">【您的获利</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">我们关注】</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: orange; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">**</span></b><b><span style="color: orange; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">以上的分析截止今天以前的数据和报告进行分析,并提供免费的个人观点进行参考。参考后请自身进行分析和判断,本人将不会附上任何投资上的亏损。</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-8496358449433753982014-08-17T19:07:00.001-07:002014-08-18T21:37:50.163-07:00每周分析【18/8 -- 22/8】<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="mso-char-indent-count: 1.0; text-indent: 10.5pt;">
<span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">欢迎大家阅读我每周外汇走势分析!每周我将会从基本面的重点新闻发布结合技术图的走势来为大家推测一周的可能性走势。在你还未深入阅读下去之前,我需要和大家澄清以下几点</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">1)</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">基本面数据我是参考</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">forexFactory</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">的预测</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><br />
2</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">)以下的分析纯属分享,并不鼓励大家全部身家去跟着投资;我将不会附上任何投资的损失。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;"> </span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本周的走势会以基本面为</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">导向,主要是澳币,英镑,欧元和美金波动可能较大。本周的焦点则是在央行的货币政策会议摘要和</span><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 宋体;">杰克逊嚯尔全球央行年会发表题为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">“</span><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 宋体;">劳动力市场</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">”</span><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 宋体;">的讲话</span>。而美联储行长耶伦在<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">FOMC</span><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 宋体;">和杰克逊嚯尔全球央行年会上的发布将会直接牵动着市场对未来美金的展望!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 宋体;">此外,本周除了有众多的央行发表之外,还有英国与美国的通胀报告和众多欧元区国家的采购经理人指数也是不能忽视的重要报告将引导市场的走势。大家许多留意基本面数据哦。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧元兑美金</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧元兑美元在上星期受到美国数据疲软和欧洲央行暂可能不推出新政策下隔夜反弹,但在星期五闭市前冲高回落,显示但上方卖压依然沉重。数据方面,欧元区排名前三的经济体中的(德国和法国)都出现疲软的现象;而上季度的增长其实受惠于快速增长的小国如西班牙,挪威和葡萄牙。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧元区目前面对的问题在有数据为未来几季的经济表现拉响了警报。欧元区经济放缓主要原因可能来自</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月对俄罗斯实施的制裁将开始起效。随着近期欧元区经济数据的持续疲软,且欧洲央行不断释放鸽派信号,加之地缘政治风险令欧元区处于风口浪尖之上,欧元可谓陷入四面楚歌之境,本周欧元区将陆续发布更多的采购经理人指数将更显得重要。若法国和德国的采购经理人指数跌破</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的话,很可能逼使欧洲央行在</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号的利率决议上加大干扰的可能性。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsG03rAPEbYCMQSFo7GwEt6ZAOP2b1O0yX6q306IXFkx2uvUJQAM50xz1cD3XvejWtkIZN0jQRVqJqdCjWe8oio9fXrOs5_Sk87n9SQ-32fJ4LJknlfQUIjV3vcgsfjwesQ8UoP7JNP70/s1600/EU+18.8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsG03rAPEbYCMQSFo7GwEt6ZAOP2b1O0yX6q306IXFkx2uvUJQAM50xz1cD3XvejWtkIZN0jQRVqJqdCjWe8oio9fXrOs5_Sk87n9SQ-32fJ4LJknlfQUIjV3vcgsfjwesQ8UoP7JNP70/s1600/EU+18.8.jpg" height="294" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">技术面趋势:天图形态中自星期三和四连续两日录得长上影线的十字星形态,而上周冲高回落收市显示跌势依然强劲。虽然</span><span lang="EN-US">MACD</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">依然处于升势,但是整体走势则是盘整再</span><span lang="EN-US">1.343 -1.333</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">之间。</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">预计本周开始将继续维持技术性盘整直到本周关键的一天,在星期四。若整体欧元区的采购经理人指数下滑,甚至跌破</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的话,那么欧元将有望跌破</span><span lang="EN-US">1.33</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的价位。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">1.343<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">1.35<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">1.33<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">1.32<br />
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">英镑兑美金</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">英镑兑美金自上周惨遭央行口头再次打压的情况下大跌了</span><span lang="EN-US">1000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">多点后,盘整了两天,目前技术面持稳等待消息引导。本周英国将迎来两则重要的基本面因素;(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)通胀报告与零售报告;(</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)英国央行公布会议摘要。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">根据英国央行主席的发布显示,目前英国的通胀报告处于下滑现象,而零售业,采购经理人指数和生产商价格指数等是我们必须密切留意有出现萎缩的现象的关键!若持续恶化不排除卡尼有更多的措施来打救经济。虽本月份则是预期保持不变,但是还需留意卡尼对英国前景的看法。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzg6OfGLyM86mja9y4DmirZv2eCPlXyVG-YyXL8RLhAnPQDNnKcGmNKkX8MHDGky_41sn-nHP1J1cpyRmTuymNcU5SglEuri6YALrMe284S0b6Bj0fsSJZKUdj24vpbg6IXYLLWaz486U/s1600/GU+18.8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzg6OfGLyM86mja9y4DmirZv2eCPlXyVG-YyXL8RLhAnPQDNnKcGmNKkX8MHDGky_41sn-nHP1J1cpyRmTuymNcU5SglEuri6YALrMe284S0b6Bj0fsSJZKUdj24vpbg6IXYLLWaz486U/s1600/GU+18.8.jpg" height="292" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;"><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US">
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">技术面趋势:天图形态中自上周卡尼再次重申由于产能过剩的问题,未有升息预期的情况下英镑急跌了</span><span lang="EN-US">1000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">多点后,趋势正处于</span><span lang="EN-US">200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">均线上方以十字线结束。目前趋势正处于</span><span lang="EN-US">1.66</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的支持上方得到支持,若趋势跌破</span><span lang="EN-US">200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">天均线的话很可能短期来看英镑的升势即将正式宣布结束直到产能问题得以解决为止。而</span><span lang="EN-US">MACD</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">目前处于上升的趋势中,短暂有望反弹。</span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">目前英镑兑美金升跌只是一线之差罢了,个人建议本周策略为观望。短暂有望反弹至</span><span lang="EN-US">1.68</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">若无法站稳的话可能回落至</span><span lang="EN-US">1.66</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。若能突破</span><span lang="EN-US">1.69</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的话,英镑兑美金有机会回升至早前</span><span lang="EN-US">1.7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的价位。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">预期走势:</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">观望</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">1.68<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">1.69<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">1.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.66<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.647</span><br />
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧元兑日元</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本周主要关注在欧元区和美国的基本面身上。预期欧元区众多制造业数据将放缓(特别需要留意德国和法国的制造业指数是否会跌破</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">);而美国则是需要把焦点放在新屋销售,通胀报告还有上周初请</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">续请救济金人数。最后便是</span><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 宋体;">杰克逊嚯尔全球央行年会了。超级玛丽欧和耶伦都将为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">“</span><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 宋体;">劳动力市场</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">”</span><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 宋体;">做解说,市场也将格外的留意此数据。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 宋体;">欧元区方面,若经济数据差劲的话无疑将令欧元兑日元走跌。而欧元经济数据持续放缓的情况下很可能强迫欧洲央行加快干扰的速度打压欧元。美国方面,若美国就业人数和新屋销售持续放缓的话,这可能再次另耶伦改变原先的讲法,美国升息的预期更具挑战下资金将可能转至日元。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKtwLf1JbO208dY4sNVYN1IvGu3NpBMvKPUwsGJRocTu1vvePhYAyS9b9mjyPKY5jd8LcOvhu7VwLjC2VOF9FVZ7XVFUFqS6WJlyts9ZExW9O7UVOyqWNI8e87EmBodWoOs-pMJCIsbwE/s1600/EJ.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKtwLf1JbO208dY4sNVYN1IvGu3NpBMvKPUwsGJRocTu1vvePhYAyS9b9mjyPKY5jd8LcOvhu7VwLjC2VOF9FVZ7XVFUFqS6WJlyts9ZExW9O7UVOyqWNI8e87EmBodWoOs-pMJCIsbwE/s1600/EJ.jpg" height="292" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: 宋体;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">技术面趋势:上周五闭市后,欧元兑日元在上升通道的阻力上以长上影线闭市,显示上升压力较强。虽然</span><span lang="EN-US">MACD</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">目前处于上升,但是由于压力区在</span><span lang="EN-US">137.3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的下跌通道顶部,若趋势无法突破</span><span lang="EN-US">137.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的话则有望短暂走跌。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">早前的两个强劲支持在</span><span lang="EN-US">136.2 & 135.5 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,若趋势能跌破</span><span lang="EN-US">135.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的话,中长线有望看跌。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">预期走势:</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">看跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">137.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">138<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">136.2 <br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">135.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"></span><br />
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">澳币兑日元</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本周主要关注在澳洲和美国的基本面身上。明早,澳洲联储将迎来澳洲联储议会,预计本月份议会中之前一样,保持不变;但最重要的是澳洲联储会不会再次口头打压澳币的升幅。而美国则是需要把焦点放在新屋销售,通胀报告还有上周初请</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">续请救济金人数。最后便是<span style="background: white;">杰克逊嚯尔全球央行年会了。美联储行长耶伦也将对劳动力市场进行发布,这将令外界格外留耶伦的发表,希望找到些蛛丝马迹。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1NscBeR3J8u_LwigB2LM9_m_4FlmmB5Ie481hJm7jOVX3dPxakAsfMNNtYcV4y2Qu2KfZeZ6jtGqcaH6DjOk_a9w-_CxH3H2IdAClgG5nx6F2pTR2yGBWWkfA1PWGMsiqaqsII4Uell4/s1600/AJ.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1NscBeR3J8u_LwigB2LM9_m_4FlmmB5Ie481hJm7jOVX3dPxakAsfMNNtYcV4y2Qu2KfZeZ6jtGqcaH6DjOk_a9w-_CxH3H2IdAClgG5nx6F2pTR2yGBWWkfA1PWGMsiqaqsII4Uell4/s1600/AJ.jpg" height="294" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">技术面趋势:目前澳币兑日元的形态来看已经逐渐形成升三角图形。唯有等待本周澳洲央行是否会再次打压?而耶伦对劳动力市场的发表可否另外界满意?若耶伦的发布无法令外界有何期待的话,这很可能令日元走强,从而打压澳币兑日元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">上周挑战一次在</span><span lang="EN-US">93.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的支持后无法跌穿,在</span><span lang="EN-US">200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天均线和</span><span lang="EN-US">FIBO 38.2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的支持得到力量反弹,目前挑战</span><span lang="EN-US">96.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的阻力。虽然</span><span lang="EN-US">MACD</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">目前正开始处于上升趋势,但是若基本面因素打压令趋势止步在</span><span lang="EN-US">96.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">上不去的话,有望再次走跌。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">预期走势:</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">先涨,后跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">95.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">96.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">94.5 <br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">93.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">澳币兑美金</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">今早的澳洲联储的决议表示:“维持利率稳定一段时间是审慎的作法。以历史标准来看,澳元汇率偏高,对经济均衡增长提供的支持不够。此外,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><a href="http://www.fx678.com/indexchart/index.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">GDP</span></a></span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">增长在第二季度可能放缓至更温和的水平。增长前景面临很大程度的不确定性,产出增长在近期可能更疲软一些,矿业投资下滑、财政整固以及偏高的澳元汇率将抑制增长。鉴于贸易条件下滑,澳元汇率可能将逐渐下跌。”</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"> </span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">根据澳洲联储以上的发表来看,若第三和第四季澳洲和中国的经济持续放缓的话,很可能逼使澳洲联储有再次减息的可能性。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"> </span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">美国方面,本周需密切留意</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">FOMC</span><span style="background: white; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;">和杰克逊嚯尔全球央行年会上耶伦如何对美国的前景与劳动力市场做法表。耶伦的发表将可以直接影响未来澳币兑美金未来的走势。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-shading-themecolor: background1;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkZUaMPBxRLcLJZZfBESWrpV6nX7nOF1FZtTHF6cbVyLm9Z44b_OjWcoRnviZRadGIz3fKEgFAAfYS1s-Y03ou57nS7-adfMi6tqlGIUcI9GehDGOMgA6mCEqVm6E4Bry0wHASRy4ZcPA/s1600/AU.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkZUaMPBxRLcLJZZfBESWrpV6nX7nOF1FZtTHF6cbVyLm9Z44b_OjWcoRnviZRadGIz3fKEgFAAfYS1s-Y03ou57nS7-adfMi6tqlGIUcI9GehDGOMgA6mCEqVm6E4Bry0wHASRy4ZcPA/s1600/AU.jpg" height="292" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">技术面趋势:澳币兑美金目前依然处于在盘整通道中。虽然</span><span lang="EN-US">MACD</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">处于升势中,但是上升空间有限,需挑战近</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个月的阻力价位</span><span lang="EN-US">0.945</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。除此之外并无明显的趋势。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">0.945<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">0.931<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">0.92<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">【您的获利</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">我们关注】</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: orange; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">**</span></b><b><span style="color: orange; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">以上的分析截止今天以前的数据和报告进行分析,并提供免费的个人观点进行参考。参考后请自身进行分析和判断,本人将不会附上任何投资上的亏损。</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-6611230911703583682014-08-12T20:35:00.001-07:002014-08-12T20:40:56.001-07:00美欧日联手制裁俄 日或成输家<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">近日,</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">吃苹果玩自拍</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的活动在波兰社交网络上迅速走红。从普通网民到政府高官,从明星到企业家,一众波兰人纷纷上传自己吃苹果或是喝苹果酒的照片。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这并非是一场简单的网络狂欢,而是对俄罗斯</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">制裁</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的回击。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">31</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日,俄罗斯宣布对波兰的大部分水果和蔬菜实施进口禁令,并表示可能将禁令的范围扩大至整个欧盟。据了解,波兰是世界上最大的苹果出口国,其中超过三分之二出口至俄罗斯。波兰官方统计,去年波兰向俄罗斯出口的苹果价值</span><span lang="EN-US">2.73</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿欧元(约合</span><span lang="EN-US">22.6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿元人民币)。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 俄罗斯为什么突然和波兰的苹果过不去了?国际问题专家、博联社总裁马晓霖告诉《中国经济周刊》,自今年</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月克里米亚事件之后,美欧等国已经对俄罗斯进行了多轮制裁,而马航空难发生之后,制裁再次升级。这其实是俄罗斯对美国和欧盟近期一系列制裁所采取的反制措施。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">制裁铁幕拉开</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">当地时间</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">29</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日,美国总统奥巴马宣布对俄罗斯实施进一步制裁:扩大对俄罗斯金融和军事行业的制裁范围,中断对俄罗斯能源行业特定的物品与技术出口,同时正式暂停对俄出口激励措施以及对其经济发展项目的融资。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">几乎同一时间,欧盟的制裁措施也</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">如期而至</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。欧盟公布了受到制裁的俄罗斯</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">家银行名单:俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行、俄罗斯外贸银行、俄罗斯天然气工业银行、俄罗斯发展银行和俄罗斯农业银行。欧盟将切断这</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">家银行在欧洲资本市场的融资。欧盟个人或公司将不能再购买由俄罗斯国有银行发行的债券、股票或其他超过</span><span lang="EN-US">90</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天期限的金融工具。此外,成员国如需出口能源相关技术,必须获得批准。如果产品是用于深海石油勘探和开发、北极石油勘探或开发以及页岩气项目,将不会获得出口许可证。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 此外,一批据称是俄总统普京亲密助手的俄罗斯政商界人士也被美国和欧盟列入了受制裁名单。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">就在美欧制裁俄罗斯的当下,日本也闻风而动。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日本政府发言人、内阁官房长官菅义伟</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">28</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日宣布,日本与美国以及七国集团其他成员国商议后,考虑到马来西亚航空公司</span><span lang="EN-US">MH17</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">航班坠毁系遭击落的可能性增加等因素,</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">经过综合考量</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,最终决定追加对俄制裁。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">菅义伟说,日本主要制裁措施包括,与克里米亚并入俄罗斯以及乌克兰东部动荡局势直接相关的个人或团体在日本的财产将被冻结,对象包括俄政府官员和乌克兰民间武装领导人;同时,日方将按照欧洲复兴开发银行最新决定,冻结对俄罗斯境内新项目的投资;限制从克里米亚进口商品。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中国现代国际关系研究院世界经济研究所所长陈凤英告诉《中国经济周刊》,由于欧洲和美国之间存在分歧,此前两轮对俄制裁</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">雷声大、雨点小</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,制裁力度不强。但马航事件后,欧美明显是要动真格了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> <strong>制裁将令俄罗斯经济</strong></span><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">伤筋动骨</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">”</span></strong><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">近年来,俄罗斯经济低迷,</span><span lang="EN-US">2013</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年其经济增长率仅为</span><span lang="EN-US">1.3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">%。有人担心,美国、欧盟和日本的制裁,将让俄罗斯经济步履维艰。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欧盟的制裁可能让俄罗斯雪上加霜。马晓霖告诉《中国经济周刊》,欧盟此轮制裁已将俄方</span><span lang="EN-US">95</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">人和</span><span lang="EN-US">23</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个实体纳入黑名单,如动真格,将对俄经济形成伤筋动骨的伤害。因为双方互为最重要贸易伙伴,</span><span lang="EN-US">2013</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年双边贸易总额为</span><span lang="EN-US">3270</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿欧元,是俄美贸易总额</span><span lang="EN-US">200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">多亿美元的几十倍,也</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">倍于俄日贸易。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 马晓霖表示,虽然美俄贸易总量原本有限,但是美国凭借世界金融市场的垄断地位对俄罗斯施压,会造成俄罗斯资本流动的障碍,影响俄罗斯相关企业融资。俄上半年对中小企业贷款已缩两成,全年外资流失可能达到</span><span lang="EN-US">1000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿美元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">IMF</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">预测,西方制裁将导致俄经济增长率由去年的</span><span lang="EN-US">1.3%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">滑落至零。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">零增长不太可能,但影响的确不容小觑。</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">陈凤英对《中国经济周刊》表示,俄罗斯是一个能源出口大国,其财政的三分之二依赖能源。美国、欧洲限制俄罗斯石油、天然气出口以及页岩气勘探和开采技术及装备的输出,将伤害严重依赖能源工业的俄罗斯经济。随着俄石油工业欧式设备的老化,其付出的成本也将日益高昂。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 此外,制裁必然对俄罗斯民众的生活产生实质性的影响。欧洲是俄罗斯工业消费品的重要来源,如果欧洲停止对俄日用品出口,俄民众的生活成本将大大增加。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Helvetica;">日本或成</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; font-size: 13.5pt;">“</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Helvetica;">最大输家</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; font-size: 13.5pt;">”</span></strong><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="http://cache.k.sohu.com/img7/adapt/wb/2014/08/11/1407746995821_302_1000.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://cache.k.sohu.com/img7/adapt/wb/2014/08/11/1407746995821_302_1000.jpg" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在新一轮的制裁措施宣布之后,德国副总理兼经济部长加布里尔承认,新制裁举措将伤害欧洲经济,但对俄罗斯的伤害会更大。他补充称,这是值得付出的代价。然而,在这场</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">杀敌一千,自损八百</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的制裁中,欧盟付出的代价之大或许超乎加布里尔的想象。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一位俄罗斯高官表示,如果硬碰硬地对抗,俄罗斯可以在西方封锁的情况下坚持一年,而西方如果没有了俄罗斯的天然气,连一个月都坚持不了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">马晓霖表示,欧洲天然气进口的三分之一依赖俄罗斯,仅考虑今年如何安全过冬,都将让欧盟不寒而栗,完全停止贸易,则使欧盟失去</span><span lang="EN-US">2070</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿欧元的大市场。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">陈凤英告诉《中国经济周刊》,目前欧盟和美国还没能就能源方面的合作达成协议,因此,欧盟的制裁并不敢过多涉及俄罗斯供应的能源。</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">现在很多欧洲人都在海边休假,不需要电、气来取暖。但是,等到秋冬来临,民众就会有很大反应。</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">她说。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">除了能源领域千丝万缕的联系,跨国公司也不得不让欧盟再次掂量制裁的</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">反作用力</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">随着制裁接踵而至,欧美的跨国公司明显感觉到了来自西伯利亚的</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">寒流</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">:体育用品巨头阿迪达斯宣布将加快关闭俄罗斯零售店;欧洲最大汽车制造商大众汽车上半年俄罗斯市场销量同比下降</span><span lang="EN-US">8%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">;欧元区第二大零售商麦德龙将俄罗斯业务部分上市的计划搁置;荷兰皇家壳牌石油公司暂停了在乌克兰东部的</span><span lang="EN-US">Yuzivska</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">区块作业</span><span lang="EN-US">……<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">陈凤英指出,跨国公司是西方国家利益集团的一部分,在大选中有着相当大的话语权,若其利益受到影响,他们很可能会对政府施加压力。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在此轮制裁中,日本的表现颇为</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">抢眼</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。安倍置刚刚升温的日俄关系于不顾,转而谴责俄罗斯。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日本将成为最大输家。</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">马晓霖说,俄罗斯只需在北方四岛争端上采取强硬姿态,就足以让安倍无法向日本国民交代,让其为追随美国而追悔莫及。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">陈凤英表示,</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日本这着棋下得太不高明,将给日本带来战略性的损失。目前,日本</span><span lang="EN-US">70%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">到</span><span lang="EN-US">80%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">石油是从中东进口的,为了保证自身能源安全,日本一直希望投资俄罗斯远东地区,实现能源进口多元化。但这样一来,日本之前的努力都将白费,得不偿失,</span><span lang="EN-US">‘</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">赔了夫人又折兵</span><span lang="EN-US">’</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,最终美国也不会为它怎么样。</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">陈凤英预计,再过</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年,中、美、日三国中,日将会变成一颗小棋子,无足轻重。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">跟美国合作要小心,因为它不会完全考虑它的小伙伴的利益,欧债危机已经再次证明了这一点。</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">陈凤英表示。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 马晓霖则表示,抱美国大腿,日本恐怕也是别无选择,因为美国不会允许它脚踩两条船。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Helvetica;">制裁或不攻自破,</span></strong><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Helvetica;">俄罗斯将</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; font-size: 13.5pt;">“</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Helvetica;">脱欧入亚</span></strong><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; font-size: 13.5pt;">”</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Helvetica;">?</span></strong><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Helvetica;"><br /></span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">那么,面对美欧日的制裁,俄罗斯会服软吗?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">马晓霖认为,</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">服软</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不是俄罗斯的风格。俄罗斯具有非常典型的强势和复仇传统,无论美国直接造成的伤害,还是欧日制造的麻烦,它将睚眦必报。俄罗斯对于波兰、立陶宛等国的制裁已经开始。虽然掣肘美方的经济筹码不多,但作为曾经的两霸之一,俄罗斯拥有足以让美国难受的底牌,如公开鼓动推翻美元为基础的金融体系,推动世界贸易货币多元化,加速经济</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">脱欧入亚</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,甚至利用东亚天然气市场稀缺的机遇,提前对欧盟发动断气攻势。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">陈凤英也认为,虽然欧美对于俄罗斯实施了</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最严厉的制裁</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,但俄罗斯依然有很大回旋余地,因为俄罗斯已经找到合作方,即亚洲和金砖国家。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在能源方面,</span><span lang="EN-US">2014</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">21</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日,中国、俄罗斯签署高达</span><span lang="EN-US">4000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">多亿美元天然气大单的消息让全世界为之侧目。陈凤英告诉《中国经济周刊》,中东、东欧等地缘政治影响了能源价格,今年原油价格走高,这对俄罗斯也是极为利好的消息。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在军工方面,亚洲国家,如越南、印度等向来是俄罗斯的武器出口目的地。陈凤英指出,过去,中俄虽然是全面战略协作伙伴,但是俄罗斯对中国军事出口却不及其对印度和对越南出口。面对欧美的制裁,俄罗斯可能会将一些技术含量更高的武器出口给中国,加强同中国的合作。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在金融方面,金砖国家开发银行的成立也会让俄罗斯</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">偷偷一乐</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">金砖银行在克服重重阻力下成立,出乎许多人预料。这也体现出了金砖国家之间的某种默契。</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">陈凤英告诉《中国经济周刊》,金砖银行也可能在一定程度上为俄罗斯提供帮助。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">此外,有消息称,俄罗斯富人正开始放弃</span><span lang="EN-US">Visa</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">和</span><span lang="EN-US">Mastercard</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,转而使用中国的银联信用卡;与此同时,一些俄罗斯的大油企已经开始转向香港寻求贷款。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">西方国家对俄罗斯制裁必然会给金砖国家和亚洲国家带来很多机会。</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">马晓霖对《中国经济周刊》表示,美国处在一个两难的境地,俄罗斯走近中国和其他金砖国家是它不希望看到的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">经贸制裁一直是单向杀伤力有限的手段,回顾被美国等长期制裁的国家,如古巴、朝鲜、委内瑞拉、苏丹、伊朗、利比亚和伊拉克等国,见效很慢甚至毫无效果,很难促成一个主权国家放弃核心利益或改变根本政策,即便是利比亚和伊拉克,最终还是通过战争才达目标。</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">马晓霖说。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 陈凤英预计,未来制裁可能虎头蛇尾,甚至不攻自破,最终不了了之。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">转载自:</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, 'Microsoft YaHei', Tohoma, Arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; text-align: justify;">《中国经济周刊》</span></div>
kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-71307021933373458412014-08-05T10:25:00.002-07:002014-08-05T10:26:13.404-07:00澳洲联储连续第12个月维稳利率2.5%!!<span style="font-family: 宋体;"> 澳洲联储</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> <span lang="EN-US">(RBA)</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">今早公布的利率决议结果为连续第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">12</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">个月维持利率在<b>纪录低位</b></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">2.50%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">不变</span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体;">,并符合预期。决议声明重申未来一段时间内维持利率仍是审慎的做法,且仍预计澳洲经济增长未来一年将稍低于趋势水平。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><b>货币政策方面:</b>决议声明重申未来一段时间内维持利率仍是审慎的做法;货币政策仍相对宽松,持续宽松的货币政策料将为需求带来支撑,并将有助于增强增长动能;信贷增长已小幅回升,包括企业信贷。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYcLN9XAgBbuVsoihstIj6P2XtYlyU1vlDxvAew3bhOMgcbdZC2tlBVvFrA1_CfqWwsgddT8uZKjPa6gsCdUJ1NW_YsyeF7EGpDGIB5ZpK7-Oudmar0UiqOFPWnbyTKuipVAV1yzwZAo/s1600/AU+vs+GDP.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYcLN9XAgBbuVsoihstIj6P2XtYlyU1vlDxvAew3bhOMgcbdZC2tlBVvFrA1_CfqWwsgddT8uZKjPa6gsCdUJ1NW_YsyeF7EGpDGIB5ZpK7-Oudmar0UiqOFPWnbyTKuipVAV1yzwZAo/s1600/AU+vs+GDP.jpg" height="410" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">【利率与国内生产总值的对比】</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">**自2012年开始减息以来,其实澳大利亚的国内生产总值开始有缓缓走升的趋势。直到去年最后一次减息至2.5%(历史最低)后,澳大利亚的经济增长减缓,但保持在2% -4%之间。目前主要澳洲经济取决于中国和矿业与其期货价格的前景。</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><b>汇率方面:</b>决议声明重申澳币汇率仍处在历史高位;对于经济的均衡增长而言,澳币所提供的帮助不够。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> 【有打压的味道!】<br />
<b><br /></b></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><b>大宗商品价格:</b>决议称,大宗商品价格仍处在历史高位,但其中一些进口到澳大利亚的价格在年内已下滑。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> 由于近期纽西兰的乳业巨头把价格降低,更进一步打压汇价。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzhrYZxKGwCjDmhyphenhyphenVjpxC_5cr2quL_rYWDsvhKdrwNw98IN3m3oMNaEFIm5ZvMMbtvpxBcWDZkPlfzSHZu_pulN3_fdQM6HpXGHk9hvYI8yko19Bh0G8t_7PhFGt8P5uUAzK4gGdJXZLA/s1600/AU+vs+CPI.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzhrYZxKGwCjDmhyphenhyphenVjpxC_5cr2quL_rYWDsvhKdrwNw98IN3m3oMNaEFIm5ZvMMbtvpxBcWDZkPlfzSHZu_pulN3_fdQM6HpXGHk9hvYI8yko19Bh0G8t_7PhFGt8P5uUAzK4gGdJXZLA/s1600/AU+vs+CPI.jpg" height="420" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: 0px;">【利率与CPI】</span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><b>经济方面:</b>决议声明称,未来一年经济增长预计将低于趋势水平;房地产建筑业仍强劲扩张,房价仍在上涨,但增速低于去年。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><b>就业市场方面:</b>决议声明称,今年看到就业市场改善的迹象,但还需一段时间才能看到失业率持续下跌;薪资增长已明显下滑,且料未来一段时间将维持温和增长态势。<br />-->最新就业报告将在星期四早上发布。</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-indent: 0px;">【利率与就业人口(万)】</span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">更多细节请留意星期五早上澳洲联储的议会摘要!我也将会为大家带来更多细节与分析!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">部分内容取自:fx678</span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-13154498394620226372014-08-03T20:15:00.000-07:002014-08-03T20:15:58.622-07:00每周分析【4/8 -- 8/8】<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> 欢迎大家阅读我每周外汇走势分析!每周我将会从基本面的重点新闻发布结合技术图的走势来为大家推测一周的可能性走势。在你还未深入阅读下去之前,我需要和大家澄清以下几点</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">1)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">基本面数据我是参考</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">forexFactory</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的预测</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br />
2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)以下的分析纯属分享,并不鼓励大家全部身家去跟着投资;我将不会附上任何投资的损失。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在上周的焦点“</span><span lang="EN-US">FOMC”&“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">非农报告”,本周汇市也依然多姿多彩!本周除了有众多的经济数据发布以外,还有四大央行同时发布利率决议!务必会为本周的汇市给于更明确的方向!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">本周焦点在于以色列部队和哈马斯之间发生激烈交火的消息可继续关注,各国的经济报告,而之后轮番出炉的四大央行决议料将成为牵引市场神经的主线,特别是星期四的欧洲央行决议后的德拉基行长发布会,由于欧元区的通胀指数再次出现放缓的现象,市场务必会对“超级玛丽欧”的发布更加关注!</span><br /><br /><b>欧元兑美金</b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyfmJlFlKyy-1Chq_cMjAlbIq8jBQX673j8WdR8btoNTlbhZeqwUr6jZlyptct5NDpEqdtlM-BErpEef9R-TmDG8osorCArUdGuxQKONRtGtofPbMKxuUGvbSPtEmeAKe-WWqjMW5RDv4/s1600/EU+4.8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyfmJlFlKyy-1Chq_cMjAlbIq8jBQX673j8WdR8btoNTlbhZeqwUr6jZlyptct5NDpEqdtlM-BErpEef9R-TmDG8osorCArUdGuxQKONRtGtofPbMKxuUGvbSPtEmeAKe-WWqjMW5RDv4/s1600/EU+4.8.jpg" height="306" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /> 上周欧元整体数据好坏参半,消费和零售走升,而</span><span lang="EN-US">CPI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">和</span><span lang="EN-US">PMI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">则是差劲。但最终在星期五受益于美国的就业报告不及预期而利好欧元。直至上星期五,欧元兑美金收盘在</span><span lang="EN-US">1.34</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">附近(早前</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">比</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的双顶后的支持)。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">此外,虽然欧元区</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月失业率为</span><span lang="EN-US">11.5%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(预值为</span><span lang="EN-US">11.6%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)但是通胀因素对于欧元区而言更为关键。早期欧洲央行希望透过缩减储存利率来打压欧元的汇率来提振经济和帮助阻止通缩的现象,但是在持稳一个月后又再次下滑!本周欧洲央行利率决议和议会务必令市场更加关注!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">数据方面,欧元本周唯有在星期一下午发布的西班牙失业人数和星期二西班牙和意大利的服务业采购经理人指数外,基本上都并无其他重要的数据。本周欧元的焦点将会在星期四晚上的利率决议和议会。由于美国并无透露更多升息的预期下提振欧元,再加上欧元通胀指数再次出现萎缩,若本周欧洲央行再次干扰的话,欧元兑美金有望下跌至</span><span lang="EN-US">1.33 – 1.31 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">之间。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 另一边,美国方面主要注意的是ISM非制造业指数,贸易帐和上周初请和续请就业金人数。根据预测,本周美国的三个报告都将出现利好的消息,而这将打压欧元的涨幅。倘若美国非制造业指数和就业金人数差劲的话,务必另外界再次抛售美金,非美货币将得到提振。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 技术面趋势:天图的技术面显示欧元兑美金处于跌势的状态,目前走势也背离三条均线(50天,100天,和200天)显示跌势依然强劲。此外,自上周完成1比1的双顶之后,周线图和MACD也正处于上升状态,而趋势短暂持稳在1.34以上,上探阻力1.35 。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 在星期四的利率决议前,趋势有望介于1.34 -1.35直接,若西班牙和意大利数据利空令欧元兑美金跌破1.34则是看跌。最后,欧元兑美金的走势主要以利率决议和议会的结果为导向。</span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">预期走势:</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> <span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">1.35<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">1.34<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">1.33<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">1.31</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b><br />英镑兑美金</b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV-RlD2clouWtib4ce5c7JadhmNUKxxr94IXB_LYSt_KT3dJAtH35o7psxvP431EoOE1ULuLye2QsvForIN0YKMPSyjWx5s9SG1ZA4bBqdntLtp48012_zss0kWnm-wNpBNTSnLBmaJQQ/s1600/GU+4.8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV-RlD2clouWtib4ce5c7JadhmNUKxxr94IXB_LYSt_KT3dJAtH35o7psxvP431EoOE1ULuLye2QsvForIN0YKMPSyjWx5s9SG1ZA4bBqdntLtp48012_zss0kWnm-wNpBNTSnLBmaJQQ/s1600/GU+4.8.jpg" height="308" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">自上个月月初惨遭卡尼对英国央行升息预期的口头否决后英镑兑美金便开始了连续</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">周的跌势。截止上周,英镑兑美金基本上依然处于跌势,最终在星期五因英国</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月制造业活动萎缩而令外界再次对升息的预期感到失望,再次引发抛售英镑的预期。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">由于英国</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月制造业活动扩张速度为一年来最慢,</span> <span lang="EN-US">Markit</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">称,按历史标准看,制造业增长仍算强劲,放缓也符合英国央行</span><span lang="EN-US">(BOE)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的预期,即英国经济复苏将在未来数月略为减慢。美国商品期货交易委员会</span><span lang="EN-US">(CFTC)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">周五</span><span lang="EN-US">(8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">发布的报告显示,投机者持有的英镑净多头减少</span><span lang="EN-US">2587</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">手,为净多头</span><span lang="EN-US">29410</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">手,显示投机者对英镑继续看多的意愿有所减弱。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本周英国将迎来英国央行的利率决议和建筑业与服务业采购经理人指数。由于英国经济并无扩展现象,所以预计本月份的利率决议不会有太多惊喜,但是依然需密切留意卡尼对目前经济放缓的现象有何看法?此外,若建筑业与服务业采购经理人指数处于萎缩的话,本周的英镑将依然看跌。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美国方面主要注意的是</span><span lang="EN-US">ISM</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">非制造业指数,贸易帐和上周初请和续请就业金人数。根据预测,本周美国的三个报告都将出现利好的消息,而这将打压欧元的涨幅。倘若美国非制造业指数和就业金人数差劲的话,务必另外界再次抛售美金,非美货币将得到提振。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">技术面趋势:英镑兑美金以跌破上升趋势通道,而周线图已出现连续4根红色的跌势蜡烛,显示下跌趋势依然强劲。汇价也在上周同时跌破站稳已久的100天均线,显示中长线有跌势的趋势。而MACD则是依然处于跌势。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">预期走势:</span>
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">1.697<br />
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">1.672<br />
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">):</span><span lang="EN-US">1.665<br />
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<b>澳币兑美金</b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNASJyaMIGThDbjw8AzFMkAwYRtHezsO8R0G4GadFMAWLmRCLUhArHsYVBbmmWmCSTXDsMFRY1FQNwGJMVQtxhhbDVzDky8c3QqY_wGeLJ4YDp3g5ZCwewFNycpEvyU0JIJC1J6ysWhwM/s1600/AU+4.8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNASJyaMIGThDbjw8AzFMkAwYRtHezsO8R0G4GadFMAWLmRCLUhArHsYVBbmmWmCSTXDsMFRY1FQNwGJMVQtxhhbDVzDky8c3QqY_wGeLJ4YDp3g5ZCwewFNycpEvyU0JIJC1J6ysWhwM/s1600/AU+4.8.jpg" height="308" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b> </b> <span style="font-family: 宋体;">澳币兑美金上周的走势好坏参半,但也受到美国就业报告不及预期的推动而返回</span><span lang="EN-US">0.93</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的价位。而美国商品期货交易委员会</span><span lang="EN-US">(CFTC)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">周五</span><span lang="EN-US">(8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">日</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">发布的报告显示,投机者持有的澳元净多头增加</span><span lang="EN-US">813</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">手,为净多头</span><span lang="EN-US">39606</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">手,显示投机者对澳元继续看多的意愿有所增强。</span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><b>具体报告:</b></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">澳大利亚制造业活动在</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份录得八个月来首次扩张,即使企业仍抱怨强劲的澳元汇率及盈利压力。具体数据显示,澳大利亚</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">AIG/PWC</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">制造业表现指数升至</span><span lang="EN-US">50.7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,为八个月</span><span lang="EN-US">(2013</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月以来</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">首次站上</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">荣枯分水岭;上月为</span><span lang="EN-US">48.9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。分项数据的表现也令人鼓舞,数据显示,产出和新订单分项指数上升,就业分项指数攀升</span><span lang="EN-US">4.7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个点至</span><span lang="EN-US">50.2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,是就业稳定的信号。</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">澳大利亚第二季度</span><span lang="EN-US">PPI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年率升幅微降至</span><span lang="EN-US">2.3%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,季率转为下降</span><span lang="EN-US">0.1%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,主要由于交通运输设备制造业、电脑及电子设备制造业及其它农产品价格下跌部分抵消了建筑业、医药产品制造业价格的上涨</span><span lang="EN-US">; </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">特别是农产品价格季率下跌</span><span lang="EN-US">5.7%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美国</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月季调后非农就业人口增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">20.9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万,不及预期的增加</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">23.3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月增幅则由初值</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">28.8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万小幅上修至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">29.8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万。同时,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月失业率升至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">6.2%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,相比起前值</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">6.1%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">略有回升。这一系列数据虽然表面上来看仍是中规中矩,但是其逊于预期的状况却还是对市场造成了一定的影响,令美元指数此前的连续涨势戛然而止,同时,各界对于美联储未来政策预期的看法也发生了微妙的变化。</span><div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 本周美国,澳洲和中国方面有较多的经济数据,需密切留意每个数据的发布。特别是澳洲的贸易,就业,预计都将受益与制造业的改善而受惠。此外,澳洲联储将在本周发布利率决议何议会。预计澳洲联储暂无任何升息或是减息的预期,但需要留意澳洲联储主席对经济前景的发表。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 技术面趋势:澳币兑美金走势目前依然盘整于0.945 -0.93 之间,趋势并无明确。但受惠于美国的就业差劲下,只要本周澳洲和中国数据偏好,而澳洲联储不口头打压的话,澳币兑美金本周则是看涨。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">预期走势:</span> <span lang="EN-US"><br /></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):0.945</span><span lang="EN-US">阻力(2):0.95<br /></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):0.93</span><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):0.92</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;"><b>英镑兑澳币</b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY8-DRUd3j5BLzQ-FxeqD80utY3EotoIBnYIfNcI3Rrnm7sN8Bwp4Wxre3o65wscZ-Xbgy2sOybFsVBWDmpuQoBvvbAsuXlybdnN0OzfIQP5GETqu4hSFEs2vskHtG85EcS50BzruNZrA/s1600/GA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY8-DRUd3j5BLzQ-FxeqD80utY3EotoIBnYIfNcI3Rrnm7sN8Bwp4Wxre3o65wscZ-Xbgy2sOybFsVBWDmpuQoBvvbAsuXlybdnN0OzfIQP5GETqu4hSFEs2vskHtG85EcS50BzruNZrA/s1600/GA.jpg" height="308" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;"> 英镑兑澳币上周基本上可说是盘整,英国和澳洲的数据都是好坏参半,无法令趋势明确。但借由美国就业报告差劲的结果提振澳币,最终令英镑兑澳币接近跌破1.8的关键支持。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;"> 本周的焦点在于两国的经济数据和利率决议的结果来主导走势。更多基本面解说可以看回澳币兑美金和英镑兑美金。但整体来说,本周的基本面较有利于澳币,相对的较不利于英镑,所以整体看跌。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;"> 技术面趋势,目前英镑兑澳币支撑在1.8,但是大体趋势看跌;英镑兑澳币自上星期四起已开始跌破3条趋势线,显示下跌趋势强劲。若本周可受到澳洲与中国的基本面提振下令汇价跌破1.8则有机会挑战1.782 。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体;">预期走势:</span> <span lang="EN-US"><br /></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">阻力(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):1.816</span><span lang="EN-US">阻力(2):1.836<br /></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):1.782</span><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">支持(</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">):1.74</span></div>
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Brought to u by :Kingsley Tan<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: orange; font-size: 10.0pt;">**</span></b><b><span style="color: orange; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">以上的分析截止今天以前的数据和报告进行分析,并提供免费的个人观点进行参考。参考后请自身进行分析和判断,本人将不会附上任何投资上的亏损。</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248971551423937913.post-11885765037032087592014-08-01T00:59:00.001-07:002014-08-01T00:59:51.132-07:00泰国建高铁连通中国 造价千亿<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i1.itc.cn/20140731/2e19_4ce44a44_e1ec_8567_18b1_7d83e3de86a0_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i1.itc.cn/20140731/2e19_4ce44a44_e1ec_8567_18b1_7d83e3de86a0_1.jpg" height="640" width="608" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">据泰国《曼谷邮报》昨日报道,泰国国家和平与秩序委员会已经批准了两条连接中国和泰国的高铁项目,总成本约为</span><span lang="EN-US">7414</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿泰铢</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">约</span><span lang="EN-US">1801</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿港元</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。该报称,泰国政府内部人士透露,这两条高铁线路是中国连通东南亚国家计划中的一部分,新的高铁线将把中国的南部省份通过泰国和东南亚国家相连,同时也会帮助中国在东南亚地区发挥更大的经济影响力。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">泰国交通部常任秘书</span><span lang="EN-US">SoithipTraisuth</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">表示,廊开府-马塔府</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">总长</span><span lang="EN-US">737</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">公里,计划投资</span><span lang="EN-US">3925</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿泰铢</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、清孔-帕栖</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">总长</span><span lang="EN-US">655</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">公里,计划投资</span><span lang="EN-US">3488</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿泰铢</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这两条高铁线路的最高时速将从原计划的每小时</span><span lang="EN-US">200</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">公里降低到每小时</span><span lang="EN-US">160</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">公里。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Soithip</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在和泰国军方领导人就泰国的基础设施发展计划进行会晤之后,对媒体表示:「这样的计划将帮助未来投资中增加速度更快的高铁系统。」</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这项重要的高铁项目将很大程度上提高泰国国内的运输能力,将泰国的边境城市、泰国境内主要城市、首都曼谷,以及很多港口、机场、货运枢纽中心等重要结点连通。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> <b>计划</b></span><b><span lang="EN-US">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年完成项目</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">泰国交通部将对该双轨铁路项目的成本进行研究,希望可以将每公里的工程成本从</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">至</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿泰铢降低到</span><span lang="EN-US">3.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">至</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿泰铢左右。作为泰国基础设施</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年计划</span><span lang="EN-US">(2015-2022)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中的一部分,这两项高铁线路将于明年开工,计划</span><span lang="EN-US">2021</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年完成。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 由泰国国家和平与秩序委员会副主席,皇家空军主管、空军上尉帕拉金</span><span lang="EN-US">(PrajinJantong)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">领导的工作组将于下周对两条高铁项目预算作出更为详细的计划。帕拉金表示,高铁项目投资方的选择工作也在未来一个月中完成。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">据了解,中铁总公司成立中泰铁路项目部,为泰国高铁建设作了大量前期准备。中铁总公司是中国中铁的母公司,由于中国中铁是整体上市,如果中铁总公司获得泰国高铁合同,将最终由中国中铁承担。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span><span lang="EN-US">2012</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月中泰两国政府签署了铁路发展合作的谅解备忘录以来,中泰就高铁合作项目一直在进行磋商。中方已经做了大量的前期准备工作,包括对泰方进行了高铁技术人员培训,并共同完成了曼谷至清迈、曼谷至廊开高铁的预可行性研究。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">两条高铁的建设开工意味着,中国高铁技术产品将有机会向东南亚扩展市场。显然,中泰高铁开工对于中国南车等企业来说将是走向海外的重大机遇。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">据《环球时报》记者了解,泰国国内目前铁路系统十分老旧,全部为窄轨铁路,时速仅</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">公里左右,而且脱轨事故频发。一周前,从新加坡开往泰国的一列豪华旅游客车在泰国北碧府桂河大桥附近发生脱轨事故,造成多名外籍乘客受伤。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">索提表示,泰国目前急需进行的基础设施工程,将致力于提高国内交通网络的连通性,尤其是连接贸易枢纽、关键城市、曼谷及周边府、海港、空港、铁路货运中心的交通网络。《曼谷邮报》援引消息人士称,这些线路同中国提议的泛亚铁路规划相吻合,中国此前曾提议修建连接其南部省份、穿越泰国联通东南亚的交通大动脉,而高速铁路与东南亚的联通将对中国具有战略意义,让中国获得在该地区更多经济影响力。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">分析人士表示,中国一直希望能够建设一条经由中国西南部联通东南亚各国的大通道,这次军政府通过的两条高铁线路,其中一条与昆曼公路的走向完全吻合,清孔是昆曼公路泰国境内北部的起点;而另外一条则与中国规划中的昆明</span><span lang="EN-US">—</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万象中老铁路联通,这两条高铁线路一旦建成,中国大西南与东南亚的互联互通和经济合作将会提升到新水平,同时将会给东盟一体化注入新动力。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在泰国前总理英拉执政时期,中国和泰国曾达成</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">大米换高铁</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的相关计划,当时英拉政府优先考虑的高铁计划是修通曼谷至清迈的线路,但该线路无法与中国规划的泛亚铁路联通。泰国军方在今年</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">22</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日获得政权后,曾宣布暂停一切英拉时代的</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万亿泰铢大型基础设施工程并逐一进行审查,也曾一度传出,泰国军政府计划放弃高铁计划。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">泰国《民族报》</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日说,泰国维稳会主席巴育的特使兼顾问、泰国前副总理宋吉本周在中国访问期间,中泰双方达成协议,重新启动由宋吉和中国前副总理吴仪建立的</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中泰联委会</span><span lang="EN-US">”</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。《民族报》说,这次双边会议增强了两国关系,预计未来中国将会更多地参与泰国大型基础设施投资建设,包括高铁、水资源管理等。另据路透社</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日报道,泰国今年稍早与中国签署一份</span><span lang="EN-US">100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万吨的稻米出口协议,而泰国政府及产业人士周三表示,计划重新协商该协议,以向北京扩大出售稻米。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> 泰国当地分析人士表示,泰国军政府上台以来,包括欧美等西方国家对军政府态度冷淡,而中国则表示了一定程度的理解和支持,最近一段时间以来,中泰双边合作和往来频繁,两国关系迅速升温,如果泰国军政府能够推动建设两条高铁通道,必将进一步提升中泰两国的经贸合作,为两国民众造福。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
kingsleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10479321325962175421noreply@blogger.com0